Merge pull request 'feat(renovate): track the Keycloak operator (the real Keycloak version), never auto-merge it' (#88) from feat/renovate-track-keycloak-operator into main

Reviewed-on: #88

.gitea/workflows/renovate.yaml

@@ -60,9 +60,21 @@
 # entry's "What I did NOT verify" — that gap is stated, not papered over.
 #
 # OPERATOR PREREQUISITE — ONE SECRET, NOT COMMITTED HERE:
-#   `RENOVATE_TOKEN` — a Gitea access token for the bot account, scopes `write:repository`,
+#   `RENOVATE_TOKEN` — a Gitea access token for the bot account (`renovate-bot`) with FIVE scopes.
-#   `read:user` and (since 2026-10-29) `read:package`. Set it as an Actions secret on this
+#   Each is required by a call Renovate 44.x makes against Gitea 1.24.3, and Gitea refuses a
-#   repository. Nothing in this repo mints,
+#   token missing one with `403 token does not have at least one of required scope(s)`:
+#     read:user          GET /user                        (platform init: initPlatform)
+#     read:organization  GET /orgs/{owner}, /orgs/{o}/labels  (initRepo -> isOrg, then org labels)
+#     write:repository   clone/push branches, /pulls, /statuses
+#     write:issue        /issues, /labels, /issues/{n}/labels  (dependency dashboard, PR labels;
+#                        Gitea files all of these under the ISSUE scope, not repository)
+#     read:package       the Gitea container registry (RENOVATE_HOST_RULES below)
+#   CORRECTED 2026-10-30. This list used to name only write:repository + read:user (+ read:package),
+#   and the operator minted exactly that. Run 350 then failed at
+#   `GET /api/v1/orgs/Home-Network 403 ... required=[read:organization], token scope=read:package,
+#   write:repository,read:user`; write:issue would have been the next wall. The preflight below now
+#   PROBES these scopes, so a short token fails in seconds with the missing scope named.
+#   Set it as an Actions secret on this repository. Nothing in this repo mints,
 #   stores or references its value; it is consumed by name only.
 #   Until it exists, this workflow FAILS LOUDLY on every scheduled run. That is intended: a
 #   visible red is the correct state for "automation configured but not credentialed".
@@ -161,10 +173,10 @@ jobs:
           That is the failure mode that let renovate.json sit inert in this repo for months while
           seven files claimed "Renovate maintains this pin".
 
-          TO FIX: create a Gitea access token for the bot account with scopes
+          TO FIX: create a Gitea access token for the bot account (renovate-bot) with scopes
-          `write:repository`, `read:user` and `read:package` (the last one lets Renovate read
+          read:user, read:organization, write:repository, write:issue and read:package (the
-          this repo's own images in the Gitea registry), then add it to this repository as the
+          header of .gitea/workflows/renovate.yaml says which call needs which), then add it to
-          Actions secret RENOVATE_TOKEN. Do not commit it anywhere.
+          this repository as the Actions secret RENOVATE_TOKEN. Do not commit it anywhere.
           MSG
             exit 1
           fi
@@ -172,6 +184,75 @@ jobs:
           # Proves the step is running INSIDE the pinned Renovate image, not the default job image.
           echo "renovate $(renovate --version)"
 
+      - name: Preflight - the token has every scope Renovate needs
+        shell: bash
+        env:
+          RENOVATE_TOKEN: ${{ secrets.RENOVATE_TOKEN }}
+        # ADDED 2026-10-30. Renovate reports EVERY platform-init failure as the bare
+        # "Authentication failure" (lib/modules/platform/gitea/index.ts initPlatform swallows the
+        # HTTP error), and a later scope gap surfaces as "Repository has unknown error". Two
+        # dispatches were spent learning one missing scope at a time. These probes are GETs only,
+        # and they name the missing scope. The token never reaches argv: curl reads it from stdin
+        # (`--config -`), so it is not in `ps` output or in the log.
+        run: |
+          set -uo pipefail
+          GITEA=https://gitea.home.keithjackson.dev
+          REPO=Home-Network/home-network-k3s-impl
+          fail=0
+          body=$(mktemp)
+          probe() { # <scope it proves> <path> <auth: bearer|basic>
+            local code
+            if [ "$3" = basic ]; then
+              code=$(printf 'user = "renovate:%s"\n' "$RENOVATE_TOKEN" \
+                | curl -sS --config - -o "$body" -w '%{http_code}' "$GITEA$2") || code=000
+            else
+              code=$(printf 'header = "Authorization: Bearer %s"\n' "$RENOVATE_TOKEN" \
+                | curl -sS --config - -o "$body" -w '%{http_code}' "$GITEA$2") || code=000
+            fi
+            if [ "$code" = 200 ]; then
+              echo "ok    $1  (GET ${2%%\?*} -> 200)"
+              return
+            fi
+            fail=1
+            echo "::error::scope $1: GET ${2%%\?*} -> $code"
+            case "$code" in
+              401) echo "      401 = Gitea rejected the token VALUE (wrong, expired or revoked)." ;;
+              403) if grep -q 'Access denied' "$body"; then
+                     echo "      403 'Access denied' = a Cilium/Envoy policy denial, not Gitea."
+                   else
+                     echo "      Gitea: $(jq -r '.message // empty' "$body" 2>/dev/null | head -c 300)"
+                   fi ;;
+              *)   echo "      body: $(head -c 200 "$body")" ;;
+            esac
+          }
+          probe read:user          "/api/v1/user"                          bearer
+          probe read:organization  "/api/v1/orgs/${REPO%%/*}"              bearer
+          probe read:repository    "/api/v1/repos/$REPO"                   bearer
+          probe read:issue         "/api/v1/repos/$REPO/labels?limit=1"    bearer
+          probe read:package       "/v2/token?service=container_registry&scope=repository:home-network/toolbox:pull" basic
+          # WRITE scopes cannot be proven by a GET. Gitea's scope-refusal message, however, lists
+          # the token's scopes (names only, never the value): ask for an admin route this bot
+          # cannot have, and read `token scope=` from the 403. Advisory if the format changes.
+          printf 'header = "Authorization: Bearer %s"\n' "$RENOVATE_TOKEN" \
+            | curl -sS --config - -o "$body" "$GITEA/api/v1/admin/orgs?limit=1" || true
+          scopes=$(jq -r '.message // empty' "$body" 2>/dev/null | sed -n 's/.*token scope=//p')
+          if [ -n "$scopes" ]; then
+            echo "token scopes (from Gitea): $scopes"
+            for want in write:repository write:issue; do
+              case ",$scopes," in
+                *",$want,"*|*",all,"*) echo "ok    $want" ;;
+                *) echo "::error::scope $want is missing (token scope=$scopes)"; fail=1 ;;
+              esac
+            done
+          else
+            echo "::warning::could not read the token's scope list; write:repository and write:issue are UNVERIFIED"
+          fi
+          rm -f "$body"
+          if [ "$fail" -ne 0 ]; then
+            echo "::error::RENOVATE_TOKEN failed the checks above (a 401 is the value, a 403 is a scope). Re-mint it for renovate-bot with read:user, read:organization, write:repository, write:issue, read:package and overwrite the secret."
+            exit 1
+          fi
+
       - name: Run Renovate
         shell: bash
         # The repo config is discovered by Renovate from the cloned repo (renovate.json5,

apps/wave-1/keycloak.yaml

@@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ spec:
     spec:
       containers:
       - name: keycloak
-        image: quay.io/keycloak/keycloak
+        image: quay.io/keycloak/keycloak:26.0.6
         ports:
         - containerPort: 8080
         volumeMounts:

catalog/keycloak.yaml

@@ -5,8 +5,15 @@
 # Validates against schemas/servicedefinition.schema.json.
 name: keycloak
 kind: container
+# DOCUMENTATION-ONLY IMAGE. The running server is NOT chosen here: the Keycloak operator
+# (platform/keycloak/kustomization.yaml, three pinned release URLs) picks it via its
+# RELATED_IMAGE_KEYCLOAK, and the Keycloak CR has no spec.image. This SD's render,
+# apps/wave-1/keycloak.yaml, is not listed in apps/wave-1/kustomization.yaml and deploys nothing
+# (ci/render-golden.sh RENDER_GOLDEN_NOT_ONBOARDED). The tag records the operator's version for
+# readers; renovate.json5 disables Renovate for this image so it cannot raise PRs against a file
+# nothing deploys. The Keycloak version moves with the operator — update this tag by hand then.
 source:
-  image: quay.io/keycloak/keycloak
+  image: quay.io/keycloak/keycloak:26.0.6
 exposure: public              # login/redirect flows for internet-exposed services; hardened (docs/15; R-DNS/R-NET)
 egress: internet              # normal WAN egress (docs/03; R-NET-05)
 storage:

ci/lint.sh

@@ -42,3 +42,19 @@ while IFS=: read -r wf _ value; do
 done < <(grep -nE '^[[:space:]]*configurationFile:' .gitea/workflows/*.y*ml 2>/dev/null || true)
 [ "$missing" -eq 0 ] || exit 1
 ok "workflow configurationFile references resolve"
+
+# A workflow must not use an action that needs a Docker daemon: jobs on this runner get NONE, by
+# decision (decisions/2026-10-29-image-pipeline.md; act_runner maps docker_host to `-`). Such an
+# action is valid YAML and passes every other stage, then dies at runtime with
+# "failed to connect to the docker API at unix:///var/run/docker.sock". renovatebot/github-action
+# did exactly that on every Renovate run until 2026-10-30 (run 343). Run the tool's image as the
+# job `container:` instead (see .gitea/workflows/renovate.yaml). Container (`docker://`) actions
+# and Docker's own daemon-bound actions are rejected for the same reason. Comments are ignored.
+daemon_uses='uses:[[:space:]]*["'\'']?(docker://|renovatebot/github-action|docker/(build-push|setup-buildx|setup-qemu|login)-action)'
+bad=0
+while IFS= read -r hit; do
+  err "${hit%%:*}: needs a Docker daemon, which jobs here do not get: $(echo "${hit#*:*:}" | sed -E 's/^[[:space:]]+//')"
+  bad=1
+done < <(grep -HnE "^[^#]*${daemon_uses}" .gitea/workflows/*.y*ml 2>/dev/null || true)
+[ "$bad" -eq 0 ] || exit 1
+ok "no workflow uses a Docker-daemon-bound action"

decisions/2026-10-30-renovate-auth.md

@@ -0,0 +1,108 @@
+---
+date: 2026-10-30
+branch: fix/renovate-auth
+title: Renovate's token needs five scopes, not three; the workflow documented the wrong list, and now probes it
+---
+
+## What changed
+
+**The fix is operator-side.** `RENOVATE_TOKEN` lacks `read:organization`, and it will next lack
+`write:issue`. The operator must re-mint it with five scopes:
+
+- `read:user`
+- `read:organization`
+- `write:repository`
+- `write:issue`
+- `read:package`
+
+The git half fixes the two things that sent the operator round this loop twice.
+
+**`.gitea/workflows/renovate.yaml`**:
+- **The header's scope list is corrected**, with the call each scope serves. The old list named
+  only `write:repository`, `read:user` and `read:package`, and the operator minted exactly that.
+  The preflight's "TO FIX" text is corrected the same way.
+- **A new step, "Preflight - the token has every scope Renovate needs".**
+  - It probes read-only GETs: `/user` for read:user, `/orgs/Home-Network` for read:organization,
+    `/repos/{repo}` for read:repository, `/repos/{repo}/labels` for read:issue, and registry
+    `/v2/token` for read:package.
+  - It reads the token's own scope list out of Gitea's 403 from `/admin/orgs` (names only), and
+    requires `write:repository` and `write:issue` in it.
+  - It says what a failure means: 401 is the value; a Gitea 403 is a scope, and the probe prints
+    Gitea's message; an "Access denied" 403 is a Cilium/Envoy denial.
+  - The token is fed to curl on stdin (`--config -`), never in argv.
+
+**`ci/lint.sh`**: a new guard rejects any non-comment `uses:` in `.gitea/workflows` that needs a
+Docker daemon: `docker://`, `renovatebot/github-action` and Docker's daemon-bound
+`docker/*-action`s. That is the class of bug fixed in #84.
+
+### Root cause, with evidence
+
+Run 350 (task 567, 06:49 UTC) **got further than 348 and 349.** Gitea's router log, filtered to
+the act-runner pod `10.0.0.38`:
+
+    06:49:31 GET /api/v1/user                                   200 OK
+    06:49:31 GET /api/v1/version                                200 OK
+    06:49:31 GET /api/v1/repos/Home-Network/home-network-k3s-impl  200 OK
+    06:49:31 GET /api/v1/orgs/Home-Network                      403 Forbidden
+
+There were no `/v2/` requests: Renovate stopped before extraction. From the job log, verbatim:
+
+    ERROR: Repository has unknown error (repository=Home-Network/home-network-k3s-impl)
+      "url": "https://gitea.home.keithjackson.dev/api/v1/orgs/Home-Network",
+      "message": "token does not have at least one of required scope(s), required=[read:organization], token scope=read:package,write:repository,read:user"
+      "x-envoy-upstream-service-time": "27", "server": "envoy"
+    INFO: Repository finished ... "result": "unknown-error", "exitCode": 8
+
+**This is not Cilium.** The body is Gitea's JSON scope message, Gitea logged the request, and
+`x-envoy-upstream-service-time` shows that Envoy forwarded it upstream.
+
+**The secret WAS updated.** Runs 348 and 349 got `GET /user 403` from `tokenRequiresScopes`. Run 350
+got `/user 200`, and its token scope list now includes `read:user`.
+
+**Why `read:organization` is needed.** Renovate 44.167.0, `lib/modules/platform/gitea/index.ts`
+`initRepo`, calls `helper.isOrg` → `GET /orgs/{owner}` and rethrows on error. Gitea 1.24.3,
+`routers/api/v1/api.go`, puts `/orgs/{org}` behind
+`tokenRequiresScopes(AccessTokenScopeCategoryOrganization)`.
+
+**Why `write:issue` is needed next.** In the same `api.go`, `/repos/{o}/{r}/issues…`, `/labels`
+and `/milestones` sit in a group with `tokenRequiresScopes(AccessTokenScopeCategoryIssue)`
+(lines 1466–1582). Renovate's gitea-helper uses `/issues`, `/issues/{n}/labels`, `/labels` and
+`/issues/{n}/comments`, for the dependency dashboard (`:dependencyDashboard` is extended) and for
+PR labels. A dry run only reads them; a scheduled run writes them.
+
+The other causes the coordinator listed are ruled out:
+- **Schedule window and dry-run.** The run never reached branch processing.
+- **Repository config.** The run never reached the clone (`"cloned": undefined`).
+- **The Summary step.** It is not involved; the failure is Renovate's own exit 8.
+
+## What I verified
+
+- I read the whole run 350 job log (204 lines), and the router lines above. Runs 348 and 349 are
+  as recorded in `decisions/2026-10-30-renovate-first-run.md`'s follow-up: `/user` got 403 from
+  `tokenRequiresScopes`.
+- **The probe step, in the pinned image.** I extracted the step body from the YAML and ran it in
+  `ghcr.io/renovatebot/renovate:44.167.0` (`curl` 8.5.0 and `jq` are present) with a deliberately
+  **bogus** token. Every probe reported 401 with the "token VALUE" diagnosis, the scope-list read
+  fell back to a warning, and the step exited 1.
+- **The scope-list parser.** Against run 350's exact message format it reports `write:issue`
+  MISSING. Against a five-scope list it reports both OK. Against `all` it reports both OK.
+- **The lint guard.** It flags `renovatebot/github-action` in the pre-#84 `renovate.yaml`
+  (dfc432c, line 152). It reports nothing on the current workflows, and it ignores commented
+  lines. `bash -n ci/lint.sh` passes.
+- **Account facts, read-only.** `renovate-bot` is a collaborator with `write`, and the org is
+  public.
+
+## What I did NOT verify
+
+- **The probe with a real token. UNVERIFIED.** I never had the token. In particular, I have not
+  observed that `GET /api/v1/admin/orgs` gives renovate-bot's token a 403 with a `token scope=`
+  list. The source says the scope check runs before `reqSiteAdmin`. If the message format
+  differs, the step warns and does not fail.
+- **That five scopes are enough for a full non-dry run.** They cover every helper endpoint Renovate
+  44.167.0 calls, mapped to Gitea 1.24.3's route categories by reading source. Branch pushes go
+  over git-over-HTTPS with the token; I believe that needs write:repository, but I have not
+  observed it.
+- **Registry reads as renovate-bot.** `read:package` on a public org is expected to work. The new
+  probe is the first real test of it.
+- **Sensitive paths.** `.gitea/**` and `ci/**` are both sensitive. CI's `approval-policy` will block
+  until the operator posts `/approve-override` as a PR review.

decisions/2026-10-30-renovate-run-hygiene.md

@@ -0,0 +1,128 @@
+---
+date: 2026-10-30
+branch: fix/renovate-run-hygiene
+title: Renovate's first completed dry runs, audited; it would have opened red PRs for every app and missed the databases. Config fixed
+---
+
+## What changed
+
+**`renovate.json5` only.** Each change carries a comment quoting the measurement behind it.
+
+1. **Three new regex managers, so updates edit the SOURCE.**
+   - `catalog/*.yaml` `source.image`.
+   - `catalog/render.py` `OAUTH2_PROXY_IMAGE`.
+   - CNPG `imageName:` under `platform/` and `apps/`.
+
+   The first two match the rendered line's depName, so the catalog edit and the generated
+   `apps/wave-*` edit land in **one** branch.
+2. **`allowedVersions` mirroring each ServiceDefinition's `update.range`:**
+   - gitea/gitea `<2.0.0`
+   - nextcloud `<32.0.0`
+   - qbittorrent `<6.0.0`
+   - radarr `<6.0.0`
+   - sonarr `<5.0.0`
+   - semaphore `<3.0.0`
+
+   Plus CNPG postgresql `<17.0.0`, because a Postgres major is a migration, not a bump.
+3. **The blast-radius never-automerge list gains** `gitea/gitea`, `gitea/act_runner` and
+   `ghcr.io/cloudnative-pg/postgresql`.
+4. **HelmRelease range widening** (`matchManagers: flux`, ranged currentValue) is never
+   auto-merged and is labelled `range-widen`.
+5. **Majors need a Dependency Dashboard tick** (`dependencyDashboardApproval`) before a PR opens.
+6. **`flux` manager docker deps are disabled.** These are duplicates of `kubernetes` manager
+   extractions.
+7. **`velero/velero-plugin-for-aws` uses `semver` versioning**, so its RC pin can reach a stable
+   release.
+8. **`python` minors are not auto-merged.**
+9. **Two false comments are corrected.**
+   - Ranges "cap Renovate at patches": false, Renovate widens them.
+   - `nextcloud:31-apache` and `docker:27-dind` "cannot be maintained": false, they were.
+
+PR #85 is merged, so nothing here overlaps an open branch.
+
+### The audit: dispatch runs 353 (07:12 UTC) and 354 (07:23 UTC), on 593d0fa
+
+Both runs ended `success`, Renovate `"result": "done"`, `exitCode 0`. Both were at `info` level, so
+I reproduced the per-dependency detail with a debug-level local dry run of the same commit (see
+below).
+
+The runs were inside the 03:00–06:00 America/New_York window, so branches were processed:
+- run 353: 37 "Would commit" branches;
+- run 354: 40, because the operator had added `RENOVATE_GITHUB_COM_TOKEN` 9 s before it.
+
+Gitea's router log for the act-runner pod during both runs shows 317 2xx responses. The only
+non-2xx were all expected:
+- `/v2/` 401: the registry challenge;
+- `/admin/orgs` 403: the #85 scope probe, by design;
+- 6× `HEAD …/manifests/sha256:000…` 404: the placeholder digests.
+
+| # | Class | Count | Cause | Severity | Fix |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| 1 | App-image PRs edit only generated `apps/wave-*` | 9 branches | A ServiceDefinition has no `apiVersion`, so the `kubernetes` manager extracts 0 deps from `catalog/`. The oauth2-proxy sidecar is a Python constant (`catalog/render.py:132`) | **Real problem.** Every such PR fails `ci/render-golden.sh` (reproduced: rc 1 "GOLDEN DRIFT"), stays red and holds a PR slot | git (1) |
+| 2 | CNPG `imageName` untracked | 3 Clusters | The `kubernetes` manager reads `image:` only. The one tracked postgres line was the grant Job (`nextcloud-db.yaml:303`, "keep in step with spec.imageName") | **Real problem.** A real run bumps the Job and leaves the databases behind | git (1) |
+| 3 | Bogus or out-of-policy majors | 5 branches: gitea 28.2.0, qbittorrent 20.04.1, radarr 6.x, nextcloud 35, postgresql 18.6 | Odd legacy tags, plus `update.range` in `catalog/` not being read by Renovate | Risk if run for real: unmergeable PRs, which hold slots | git (2) |
+| 4 | Auto-merge of the merge gate's own host | gitea 1.24.3→1.27.3, act_runner 0.2.11→0.6.1, both "minor" | Not in the blast-radius list. A 0.x minor is breaking by semver | **Risk if run for real** | git (3) |
+| 5 | Range widening auto-merged | external-dns, headlamp (minor); longhorn (blast radius); kube-prometheus-stack (major) | Renovate widens `>=a <b`. The config's comment claimed the opposite | **Risk if run for real:** silently lets Flux adopt new minors | git (4, 9) |
+| 6 | Majors hold PR slots | 10 majors in run 354 against `prConcurrentLimit: 5` | Majors never auto-merge, so they stay open | Risk: starves auto-mergeable PRs | git (5) |
+| 7 | `Cannot find replaceString … alpine:3.22` (INFO) | 1 per run | The same HelmRelease `image:` line is extracted by `flux` and `kubernetes` (also the velero plugin) | Cosmetic. The branch is still right | git (6) |
+| 8 | velero-plugin-for-aws stuck on `v1.14.3-rc.2` | 1 dep, 0 updates | Docker versioning treats `-rc.2` as a suffix, so stable `v1.14.3` and `v1.14.4` never qualify | **Real problem** (silent) | git (7) |
+| 9 | python 3.13→3.15 as auto-mergeable "minor" | 2 files | Language runtime minor | Risk if run for real | git (8) |
+| 10 | `WARN GitHub token is required` | run 353: 5 packages, 17 deps | No github.com token | Real (they were unmaintained) | **operator, done:** run 354 has no WARN and adds `pin-dependencies`, `kubevirt-cdi`, `actions-checkout-7.x`, `major-github-artifact-actions` |
+| 11 | Floating or untagged images (`invalid-value`) | 4: jackett, plex `latest`; pihole, keycloak no tag | No version to compare | Real, already documented | none in git. Pinning by hand is an operator/PM decision |
+| 12 | `runs-on: ubuntu-latest` `invalid-version` | 11 | The github-actions manager extracts runner labels | Cosmetic, debug-only | none |
+| 13 | `Docker Manifest is unknown` (debug) | 3 | HEAD on the all-zero placeholder digests | Expected. Clears when the own-image digest PRs merge | none |
+| 14 | `Docker: error fetching data from DockerHub` 403 (debug) | 5 | Hub refuses `page=11`. Renovate already has the tags | Cosmetic. Updates were still found | none |
+| 15 | `Config migration necessary` | 1 | Top-level `"docker": {"enabled": true}` | Cosmetic, pre-existing | none (as before) |
+
+**Checked and fine:**
+- The 3 own-image digest updates were found in both runs. All 4 `# renovate-digest:` markers parse.
+- No marker failed to parse.
+- No package file is under `conformance/runs` or `tests`, nor is `DECISIONS-LOG.md`, `decisions/` or
+  any `*.sops.yaml` (77 package files checked).
+- `kubevirt-cdi` grouping works.
+- The schedule window behaved as designed.
+- Vulnerability alerts: none in either log.
+
+## What I verified
+
+- I read both job logs in full (132 and 129 lines), and the router log for 10.0.0.38 during both
+  runs.
+- **`renovate-config-validator` on 44.167.0**: `Config validated successfully`. The migration diff
+  is only the pre-existing `docker` block.
+- **Local dry runs.** Pinned image, `--platform=local`, debug, origin/main snapshot. "Before" is
+  593d0fa and "after" is this config; the GitHub-hosted deps were skipped in both.
+  - **Extraction:** `regex` went from 6 files / 7 deps to **19 files / 20 deps**. Every other
+    manager is unchanged: flux 15, github-actions 24, kubernetes 131, kustomize 2.
+  - **Branches:** 33 before, **29 after**. Removed: gitea-28.x, qbittorrent-20.x, radarr-6.x,
+    nextcloud-35.x and postgresql-18.x. Added: velero `v1.14.3-rc.2 → v1.14.4` (patch).
+  - **Gitea, qbittorrent, radarr, sonarr, semaphore and seerr branches** now each carry
+    `catalog/<svc>.yaml` + `apps/wave-*/<svc>.yaml`.
+  - **The oauth2-proxy branch** carries `catalog/render.py` plus the 5 rendered apps and
+    `platform/crafty`.
+  - **The postgresql-16.x branch** carries all three Clusters.
+  - The 2 flux docker duplicates report `disabled`.
+- **render==golden holds for the new branch shape.**
+  - In the toolbox, I applied the gitea branch edit (catalog + apps) and the oauth2-proxy branch
+    edit (`render.py` constant + 5 apps) textually. `./ci/render-golden.sh` reported
+    `all 10 onboarded service golden(s) reproduce`, rc 0.
+  - Negative control, the old shape with only `apps/wave-0/gitea.yaml` bumped: rc 1,
+    `GOLDEN DRIFT`.
+  - Both edits were reverted afterwards.
+
+## What I did NOT verify
+
+- **The effect of the automerge, label and dashboard-approval rules (3, 4, 5, 8). UNVERIFIED in a
+  run.** `--platform=local` stops before branch processing, so I saw only which updates exist, not
+  their merged flags. The matchers are standard (`matchPackageNames`, `matchManagers`,
+  `matchCurrentValue`, `matchUpdateTypes`). The next dispatch's debug log shows them per branch.
+- **`allowedVersions` under docker versioning** used Renovate's "Falling back to npm semver
+  syntax" path (16 debug lines). That it filters is shown by the five removed branches.
+- **render==golden for the other app branches** (qbittorrent, radarr, sonarr, semaphore, seerr). I
+  proved it only for gitea and oauth2-proxy. They have the same shape: one `source.image` line ↔
+  one rendered `image:` line.
+- **The `allowedVersions` rules duplicate `catalog/*/update.range`** and can drift from it. Nothing
+  checks them against each other. A lint comparing the two is the obvious follow-up.
+- **Any real (non-dry) run.** None has happened. PR creation, labels, auto-merge through Gitea's
+  API and the Dependency Dashboard issue are all unobserved.
+- **Sensitive path?** `renovate.json5` is not in `infra/gitea/approval-policy.json`, as far as I
+  know. CI's `approval-policy` result on the PR is the measurement.

decisions/2026-10-30-renovate-track-keycloak-operator.md

@@ -0,0 +1,113 @@
+---
+date: 2026-10-30
+branch: feat/renovate-track-keycloak-operator
+title: Renovate tracks the Keycloak operator (the real Keycloak version), never auto-merged; the catalog's phantom image is pinned as documentation and disabled
+---
+
+## What changed
+
+- **`platform/keycloak/kustomization.yaml`**: each of the three `keycloak-k8s-resources/26.0.6`
+  release URLs (two CRDs and `kubernetes.yml`) now has a
+  `# renovate: datasource=github-tags depName=keycloak/keycloak-k8s-resources` marker on the line
+  above it. That is the format the existing `custom.regex` marker manager parses (the kubevirt
+  pattern). A comment explains that these URLs are the Keycloak version. The `Keycloak` CR has no
+  `spec.image`, so the operator's `RELATED_IMAGE_KEYCLOAK` picks the server image.
+- **`renovate.json5`** has two new packageRules:
+  - **`keycloak/keycloak-k8s-resources`**: `groupName: keycloak-operator`, `automerge: false`,
+    `addLabels: [needs-review, blast-radius]`. A comment explains why. The operator, the CRDs and
+    the server are released in lockstep. The IdP gates SSO for every app and for kubectl. And
+    `passkey-reconciler.yaml` encodes Keycloak 26.0.6 Admin API shapes that the static gate never
+    exercises. Majors still go through the existing dashboard-approval rule.
+  - **`quay.io/keycloak/keycloak`**: `enabled: false`. Its only occurrences are in files that
+    deploy nothing.
+
+  The "STILL CANNOT FIX" comment also gains a one-line correction for keycloak.
+- **`catalog/keycloak.yaml`**: `source.image` changed from `quay.io/keycloak/keycloak` (no tag) to
+  `quay.io/keycloak/keycloak:26.0.6`. A comment says the image is DOCUMENTATION-ONLY and that the
+  operator chooses the real one. `apps/wave-1/keycloak.yaml` was re-rendered, which changes one
+  line.
+- **`platform/keycloak/README.md`**:
+  - Corrects the false claim "Renovate maintains the version". Until now Renovate could not see
+    the version.
+  - Adds a new section, **"Upgrading Keycloak: the operator IS the version"**. It lists the 26.0.6
+    assumptions in the passkey reconciler to diff against a new tag, and the post-merge checks.
+
+**The phantom: pin and disable, not delete.** `apps/wave-1/keycloak.yaml` is not listed in
+`apps/wave-1/kustomization.yaml`, and render-golden excludes it (`RENDER_GOLDEN_NOT_ONBOARDED`).
+Deleting it would still not be a no-op:
+
+- It is the fixture for the keycloak cases in `apps/wave-1/tests/app-slis.test.yaml` (the
+  StatefulSet-based `keycloak-down` rule). Those cases are discovered by the
+  every-PrometheusRule-in-apps/wave-1 convention.
+- Removing it means moving that rule and its tests to `platform/keycloak`. That is a separate
+  observability change, not a Renovate one.
+
+Pinning plus `enabled: false` changes one line in a file nothing applies. It cannot affect the
+cluster, and render-golden stays green.
+
+## What I verified
+
+- **Live state, prod, read-only kubectl, 2026-10-30.**
+  - Keycloak CR `keycloak` has an empty `spec.image`.
+  - The operator Deployment runs `quay.io/keycloak/keycloak-operator:26.0.6`, imageID
+    `sha256:8e3a1a56346f…`, with `RELATED_IMAGE_KEYCLOAK=quay.io/keycloak/keycloak:26.0.6`.
+  - `keycloak-0` and `keycloak-1` both run `quay.io/keycloak/keycloak:26.0.6`, imageID
+    `sha256:a93d22e13b86…`.
+  - There is no PrometheusRule containing "keycloak" in any namespace. This confirms the phantom
+    deploys nothing, including its `keycloak-down` rule (see the next section).
+- **`renovate-config-validator`** on the pinned `ghcr.io/renovatebot/renovate:44.167.0`:
+  `Config validated successfully`. The only migration note is the pre-existing `docker` block.
+- **Local dry run** (`RENOVATE_PLATFORM=local`, `RENOVATE_DRY_RUN=full`, debug, the same pinned
+  image, this worktree, with a GitHub token passed by environment variable; the token string
+  occurs 0 times in the log):
+  - The regex manager went to 21 files / 24 deps.
+  - `keycloak/keycloak-k8s-resources` was extracted three times from
+    `platform/keycloak/kustomization.yaml`, each at `currentValue 26.0.6`, datasource
+    `github-tags`, versioning `semver`.
+  - Each extraction has one update, `26.8.1`, updateType `minor`, and all three share **one**
+    `branchName: renovate/keycloak-operator`.
+  - `quay.io/keycloak/keycloak` was extracted from `catalog/keycloak.yaml` (regex) and from
+    `apps/wave-1/keycloak.yaml` (kubernetes) at 26.0.6, with `skipReason: disabled` and no
+    updates.
+- **Rule effects.** `--platform=local` does not print each branch's merged flags. So I ran
+  Renovate's own `applyPackageRules` (from `dist/util/package-rules` in the same 44.167.0 image)
+  over this `renovate.json5` for each case:
+
+  | Update | Result |
+  |---|---|
+  | operator minor 26.0.6 → 26.8.1 | `automerge:false`, `groupName:keycloak-operator`, labels `dependencies, automated-update, needs-review, blast-radius` |
+  | operator patch | same as the minor |
+  | operator major | `automerge:false`, `dependencyDashboardApproval:true`, labels add `breaking` |
+  | `quay.io/keycloak/keycloak`, catalog and rendered | `enabled:false` |
+  | control: sonarr patch | `automerge:true`, so the rule did not disable auto-merge globally |
+- **render-golden, host:** `render.py --selftest` passed, and `all 10 onboarded service golden(s)
+  reproduce`. Before the pin, the committed phantom was byte-identical to the canonical render. I
+  re-rendered it after the pin.
+- **Toolbox gate** (commit 24db269, worktree with the ENGINE shim mounting `.git` and the spec
+  repo, `DEV_KUBECONFIG=/dev/null`): **rc 3**.
+  - The only stage that did not run is **`gitea-settings`**.
+  - spec-immutability, decisions-log, lint, l0, render-golden, l1 and approval-policy all passed.
+  - L2/L3 `conformance` scaffold-skipped, as expected.
+  - **Not green.**
+- **Sensitive paths:** none touched (checked against `infra/gitea/approval-policy.json`), so no
+  `/approve-override` is needed.
+
+## What I did NOT verify
+
+- **A real Renovate run.** No PR was opened by Renovate. The labels and `automerge:false` are
+  proven by Renovate's own matcher, not by an opened PR.
+- **That 26.8.1 is safe to adopt.** I did not diff 26.0.6 against 26.8.1. That includes the
+  reconciler's assumptions: `recurseExecutions` displayName, `updateExecutions`, the
+  `RpEntityName` guard, `requiredActions` REPLACE, and config aliases. The README section lists
+  them for whoever reviews the first bump PR. It also says to take or confirm a fresh CNPG backup
+  first, because a server minor may migrate the schema.
+- **FINDING, not fixed: Keycloak has no deployed "IdP down" alert.** The `keycloak-down` SLI rule
+  exists only inside the undeployed `apps/wave-1/keycloak.yaml`. promtool tests it, but it is not
+  on the cluster: there is no keycloak PrometheusRule live. Separately, because that file exists,
+  `render.py --emit-waves` would treat keycloak as onboarded. It would then add a Deployment named
+  `keycloak` beside the operator's StatefulSet (the known `--emit-waves` hazard). The proper fix is
+  a separate PR: move the rule and its tests into `platform/keycloak`, then delete the phantom.
+- **The catalog tag can drift.** Nothing ties `catalog/keycloak.yaml`'s documentation tag to the
+  operator URLs. It must be updated by hand after an operator bump, and the README says so.
+- **Concurrent branches** `fix/renovate-hold-auth-and-self` and `feat/pin-pihole-jackett-plex`
+  also edit `renovate.json5`. Neither had merged when I checked. A rebase may be needed.

platform/keycloak/README.md

@@ -19,7 +19,9 @@ Docker Hub images were purged (DECISIONS-LOG **F-KY1**) → that path ImagePullB
   3-replica **`longhorn`** StorageClass (DR-critical, R-IDP-05), with declarative backup hooks.
 
 quay.io + ghcr.io are unaffected by the Bitnami purge. Operator manifests are pinned upstream release
-files pulled as remote kustomize bases (the kubevirt-stub pattern); Renovate maintains the version.
+files pulled as remote kustomize bases (the kubevirt-stub pattern). Renovate tracks the version via
+`# renovate:` markers on those URLs (since 2026-10-30 — before that it could not see them) and never
+auto-merges it; see [Upgrading Keycloak](#upgrading-keycloak-the-operator-is-the-version).
 
 ## Layout (controllers / configs split — F-MON1)
 
@@ -360,6 +362,38 @@ it on the BOUND flow, after go-live, in order:
 A failed passkey ceremony is usually silent in the server log — the browser refuses before Keycloak
 is involved — so step 2 failing with no log entry is the expected signature of a wrong RP ID.
 
+## Upgrading Keycloak: the operator IS the version
+
+The `Keycloak` CR has no `spec.image`, so the server image is whatever the operator's
+`RELATED_IMAGE_KEYCLOAK` names — the same tag as the operator (prod, 2026-10-30: operator
+`26.0.6`, `keycloak-0/1` on `quay.io/keycloak/keycloak:26.0.6`). Operator, CRDs and server are
+released in lockstep from `keycloak/keycloak-k8s-resources`, and the three URLs in
+`kustomization.yaml` are the one knob. Renovate raises them as ONE PR (`keycloak-operator` group,
+labels `needs-review` + `blast-radius`), **never auto-merged**; majors wait for a dashboard tick.
+`catalog/keycloak.yaml`'s image tag is documentation only (its render deploys nothing) and
+Renovate is disabled for it — update it by hand to match after an operator bump merges.
+
+**An operator bump requires re-checking the passkey reconciler's assumptions.**
+`passkey-reconciler.yaml` (and `ci/render-keycloak-passkey-policy.py`, which generates its desired
+state) is written against **Keycloak 26.0.6 Admin API behaviour read from that tag's source** —
+grep it for `26.0.6`. The gate cannot catch a break: it is static and never runs the reconciler
+against a server. Before merging a bump, diff the new tag against 26.0.6 for at least:
+
+- `AuthenticationManagementResource.recurseExecutions` — does a sub-flow row still carry its name
+  in `displayName` (not `alias`)? The reconciler's flow matching depends on it.
+- `updateExecutions` / execution-requirement updates — same request shape and id resolution?
+- the WebAuthn Passwordless policy — is it still gated all-or-nothing on a non-empty
+  `webAuthnPolicyPasswordlessRpEntityName`, and does a realm `PUT` still REPLACE rather than merge
+  `requiredActions`? (The strict read-modify-write exists because of both.)
+- authenticator-config alias handling for copied flows.
+
+Then, after the merge reconciles (operator actions): watch the `Keycloak` CR reach Ready and both
+pods roll; run the reconciler once **with `--audit`** (see "Passkeys" above for the one-off Job)
+and confirm it reports convergence with no write; confirm the client-secret and client-URL
+reconcilers' next runs succeed; log in to one SSO app and run one `kubectl --context k3s-prod`
+OIDC command. Roll back by reverting the PR — but a server minor may migrate the database
+schema on start, so take/confirm a fresh CNPG backup before merging.
+
 ## Exceptions that keep native auth (do not force SSO) — ADR-0014
 
 Plex/Seerr (Plex auth), Minecraft (Mojang/Microsoft), UniFi (native).

platform/keycloak/kustomization.yaml

@@ -21,8 +21,17 @@ namespace: keycloak
 resources:
   - namespace.yaml
   # --- Keycloak Operator v26.0.6 (pinned upstream release manifests) ---
+  # The operator, its CRDs and the SERVER IMAGE move in lockstep: the Keycloak CR has no
+  # spec.image, so the operator's RELATED_IMAGE_KEYCLOAK (quay.io/keycloak/keycloak:<same tag>)
+  # is what runs. These three URLs are therefore THE Keycloak version. Each carries a Renovate
+  # marker (custom.regex manager, renovate.json5) under ONE depName, so all three bump in ONE
+  # branch, never auto-merged (packageRule "keycloak-operator"). Before merging a bump, re-check
+  # passkey-reconciler.yaml's 26.0.6 Admin API assumptions — see README.md "Upgrading Keycloak".
+  # renovate: datasource=github-tags depName=keycloak/keycloak-k8s-resources
   - https://raw.githubusercontent.com/keycloak/keycloak-k8s-resources/26.0.6/kubernetes/keycloaks.k8s.keycloak.org-v1.yml
+  # renovate: datasource=github-tags depName=keycloak/keycloak-k8s-resources
   - https://raw.githubusercontent.com/keycloak/keycloak-k8s-resources/26.0.6/kubernetes/keycloakrealmimports.k8s.keycloak.org-v1.yml
+  # renovate: datasource=github-tags depName=keycloak/keycloak-k8s-resources
   - https://raw.githubusercontent.com/keycloak/keycloak-k8s-resources/26.0.6/kubernetes/kubernetes.yml
   # --- Admin (break-glass) credential — SOPS-encrypted, referenced by name (ADR-0007, R-IDP-04) ---
   - keycloak-admin-credentials.sops.yaml

renovate.json5

@@ -149,6 +149,50 @@
       ],
       "datasourceTemplate": "docker",
       "versioningTemplate": "docker"
+    },
+    // ADDED 2026-10-30 — THE CATALOG IS THE SOURCE; apps/wave-*/*.yaml IS GENERATED FROM IT.
+    // First real dry run (dispatch runs 353/354): EVERY app-image update edited only the rendered
+    // apps/wave-*/*.yaml and NONE edited catalog/. The `kubernetes` manager lists catalog/ above
+    // but extracts nothing there: a ServiceDefinition has no `apiVersion`, so it is not a
+    // Kubernetes manifest to that manager (measured: 0 deps from catalog/). Every such PR would
+    // fail ci/render-golden.sh (the canonical render reverts the bump), sit red and hold a
+    // prConcurrentLimit slot. These two managers read the SOURCES, under the SAME depName as the
+    // rendered line, so both land in ONE branch and render==golden holds: `source.image` in each
+    // ServiceDefinition, and render.py's OAUTH2_PROXY_IMAGE (the six auth sidecars).
+    {
+      "customType": "regex",
+      "description": "ServiceDefinition `source.image: <repo>:<tag>` (catalog/*.yaml) — the source of the rendered apps/wave-* image.",
+      "managerFilePatterns": ["/(^|/)catalog/[^/]+\\.ya?ml$/"],
+      "matchStrings": [
+        "\\n\\s+image:\\s*(?<depName>[^\\s:@#\"']+):(?<currentValue>[^\\s@#\"']+)"
+      ],
+      "datasourceTemplate": "docker"
+    },
+    {
+      "customType": "regex",
+      "description": "catalog/render.py OAUTH2_PROXY_IMAGE — the per-app oauth2-proxy sidecar every forward-auth app is rendered with.",
+      "managerFilePatterns": ["/(^|/)catalog/render\\.py$/"],
+      "matchStrings": [
+        "\\nOAUTH2_PROXY_IMAGE\\s*=\\s*\"(?<depName>[^\":@]+):(?<currentValue>[^\"@]+)\""
+      ],
+      "datasourceTemplate": "docker"
+    },
+    // ADDED 2026-10-30 — CNPG `Cluster.spec.imageName`. The `kubernetes` manager reads `image:` only,
+    // so the three database Clusters (platform/keycloak/postgres-cluster.yaml, apps/wave-0/
+    // nextcloud-db.yaml, apps/wave-0/semaphore-db.yaml) were untracked, while the grant Job in
+    // nextcloud-db.yaml — whose comment says "keep the tag in step with spec.imageName" — WAS. A real
+    // run would have bumped the Job and left the database behind. Same depName, so one branch.
+    {
+      "customType": "regex",
+      "description": "CloudNativePG Cluster `imageName: <repo>:<tag>`.",
+      "managerFilePatterns": [
+        "/(^|/)platform/.+\\.ya?ml$/",
+        "/(^|/)apps/.+\\.ya?ml$/"
+      ],
+      "matchStrings": [
+        "\\n\\s+imageName:\\s*(?<depName>[^\\s:@#\"']+):(?<currentValue>[^\\s@#\"']+)"
+      ],
+      "datasourceTemplate": "docker"
     }
   ],
   "packageRules": [
@@ -200,7 +244,15 @@
         "longhorn",
         "cilium",
         "cloudnative-pg",
-        "kube-prometheus-stack"
+        "kube-prometheus-stack",
+        // ADDED 2026-10-30. gitea and act_runner ARE the merge gate: a bad auto-merged bump takes
+        // down the very check that would have to approve its revert (the dry run proposed gitea
+        // 1.24.3 -> 1.27.3 and act_runner 0.2.11 -> 0.6.1, both as auto-mergeable "minor"; a 0.x
+        // minor is a breaking line by semver). The postgresql image restarts every CNPG database,
+        // Keycloak's (the IdP) included, now that imageName is tracked.
+        "gitea/gitea",
+        "gitea/act_runner",
+        "ghcr.io/cloudnative-pg/postgresql"
       ],
       "automerge": false,
       "addLabels": [
@@ -208,6 +260,35 @@
         "blast-radius"
       ]
     },
+    // ADDED 2026-10-30 — THE KEYCLOAK OPERATOR IS THE KEYCLOAK VERSION. The operator, its CRDs
+    // and the server image are released in lockstep from keycloak/keycloak-k8s-resources, and the
+    // Keycloak CR carries no spec.image, so the operator's RELATED_IMAGE_KEYCLOAK picks the server
+    // (measured on prod 2026-10-30: operator 26.0.6 -> keycloak-0/1 run quay.io/keycloak/keycloak:
+    // 26.0.6). The three release URLs in platform/keycloak/kustomization.yaml carry `# renovate:`
+    // markers under this ONE depName, so they move together in one branch (groupName makes that
+    // explicit). NEVER AUTO-MERGED, not even a patch: Keycloak is the IdP that gates SSO for every
+    // app AND kubectl OIDC, and platform/keycloak/passkey-reconciler.yaml encodes Keycloak 26.0.6
+    // Admin API shapes read from that tag's source (sub-flow rows named by displayName, the
+    // RpEntityName all-or-nothing guard, requiredActions REPLACE-not-merge, ...). The gate is
+    // static and does not run that reconciler against a server, so a green check says nothing
+    // about whether a bump breaks it. Majors still wait on the dashboard (rule at the bottom).
+    {
+      "description": "Keycloak operator + CRDs + server (lockstep, one branch). IdP blast radius; passkey-reconciler.yaml encodes 26.0.6 Admin API shapes — re-check it against the new tag before merging. Never auto-merge.",
+      "matchDepNames": ["keycloak/keycloak-k8s-resources"],
+      "groupName": "keycloak-operator",
+      "automerge": false,
+      "addLabels": ["needs-review", "blast-radius"]
+    },
+    // ADDED 2026-10-30 — quay.io/keycloak/keycloak IS NOT A DEPENDENCY RENOVATE MAY MOVE. Its only
+    // occurrences are catalog/keycloak.yaml `source.image` and the apps/wave-1/keycloak.yaml it
+    // renders, which is NOT listed in apps/wave-1/kustomization.yaml and deploys nothing (the
+    // operator above runs the server). A PR bumping it would change no running pod while looking
+    // like a Keycloak upgrade, and could drift from the operator's real version.
+    {
+      "description": "quay.io/keycloak/keycloak appears only in the documentation-only catalog/keycloak.yaml and its undeployed render; the operator (keycloak/keycloak-k8s-resources) chooses the real server image.",
+      "matchPackageNames": ["quay.io/keycloak/keycloak"],
+      "enabled": false
+    },
     {
       "description": "ADDED 2026-10-29. This repo's own images are followed ONLY through the `# renovate-digest:` markers above. The `kubernetes` manager also sees platform/pm-agent/deployment.yaml and infra/agent/worker-job-template.yaml, where the image has a digest and no tag; left on, it would look those up as `latest` (a tag CI never pushes) and, for the template, re-open the self-referential loop the custom manager deliberately avoids.",
       "matchManagers": ["kubernetes"],
@@ -227,6 +308,51 @@
         "gitea.home.keithjackson.dev/home-network/conformance-runner"
       ],
       "addLabels": ["own-image"]
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "ADDED 2026-10-30. The `flux` manager also extracts `image:` lines inside HelmRelease values, which the `kubernetes` manager already owns. Measured: exactly two (alpine in platform/oauth2-proxy/helmrelease.yaml, velero-plugin-for-aws in platform/velero/helmrelease.yaml), each extracted twice; the second rewrite of the same line logged `Cannot find replaceString in current file content` in runs 353/354. Flux keeps its charts (datasource helm).",
+      "matchManagers": ["flux"],
+      "matchDatasources": ["docker"],
+      "enabled": false
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "ADDED 2026-10-30. MIRRORS catalog/<svc>.yaml `update.range` — the operator's declared per-service policy (schemas/servicedefinition.schema.json), which Renovate does not read. Without it the dry run proposed gitea 28.2.0, qbittorrent 20.04.1 (both stale/odd tags, not real successors), radarr 6.x and nextcloud 35 (four majors past 31; Nextcloud cannot skip majors). KEEP IN STEP with the catalog ranges.",
+      "matchPackageNames": ["gitea/gitea"],
+      "allowedVersions": "<2.0.0"
+    },
+    { "matchPackageNames": ["nextcloud"], "allowedVersions": "<32.0.0" },
+    { "matchPackageNames": ["lscr.io/linuxserver/qbittorrent"], "allowedVersions": "<6.0.0" },
+    { "matchPackageNames": ["lscr.io/linuxserver/radarr"], "allowedVersions": "<6.0.0" },
+    { "matchPackageNames": ["lscr.io/linuxserver/sonarr"], "allowedVersions": "<5.0.0" },
+    { "matchPackageNames": ["semaphoreui/semaphore"], "allowedVersions": "<3.0.0" },
+    {
+      "description": "ADDED 2026-10-30. A CNPG Postgres MAJOR is a migration (new cluster + import), not an image bump; the dry run proposed 16.4 -> 18.6. Minors stay (and are blast-radius, above).",
+      "matchPackageNames": ["ghcr.io/cloudnative-pg/postgresql"],
+      "allowedVersions": "<17.0.0"
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "ADDED 2026-10-30. A HelmRelease semver RANGE is a policy ceiling, and Renovate does not respect it — it WIDENS it (dry run: external-dns `<1.22.0` -> `<1.24.0`, headlamp `<0.42.0` -> `<0.47.0`), and the default rule would then auto-merge that as a 'minor', silently letting Flux adopt every new minor. Raising a ceiling is deliberate per-component work: propose it, never auto-merge it.",
+      "matchManagers": ["flux"],
+      "matchCurrentValue": "/^[<>=~^]|\\.x$/",
+      "automerge": false,
+      "addLabels": ["needs-review", "range-widen"]
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "ADDED 2026-10-30. velero-plugin-for-aws is pinned to a RELEASE CANDIDATE (v1.14.3-rc.2) and Renovate proposed NOTHING for it, although v1.14.3 and v1.14.4 are stable on Docker Hub. Docker versioning treats everything after the first `-` as a compatibility SUFFIX, so only other `*-rc.2` tags qualify and the RC is a fossil forever. Semver versioning reads it as a prerelease, and a prerelease upgrades to the stable release.",
+      "matchPackageNames": ["velero/velero-plugin-for-aws"],
+      "versioning": "semver"
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "ADDED 2026-10-30. A python MINOR is a language-runtime release (the dry run proposed 3.13 -> 3.15 for the Keycloak reconcilers), and the gate does not execute those scripts. Review it; patches still auto-merge.",
+      "matchPackageNames": ["python"],
+      "matchUpdateTypes": ["minor"],
+      "automerge": false,
+      "addLabels": ["needs-review"]
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "ADDED 2026-10-30. MAJORS WAIT FOR A TICK ON THE DEPENDENCY DASHBOARD instead of opening a PR. They are never auto-merged anyway, and with prConcurrentLimit 5 the dry run's 10 majors would hold every PR slot open indefinitely, starving the patch/minor/digest PRs that can merge on green.",
+      "matchUpdateTypes": ["major"],
+      "dependencyDashboardApproval": true
     }
   ],
   // WHAT RENOVATE STILL CANNOT FIX, so nobody mistakes a working bot for full coverage. A
@@ -235,10 +361,14 @@
   // lscr.io/linuxserver/jackett:latest, pihole/pihole (NO TAG AT ALL), quay.io/keycloak/keycloak
   // (no tag), nextcloud:31-apache and docker:27-dind. Those must be pinned BY HAND to a concrete
   // version before any automation can maintain them, and until then they drift on every pull with
-  // nothing recording what is running. Separately, the HelmRelease minor-locking ranges (9 of 12,
+  // nothing recording what is running. CORRECTED 2026-10-30: nextcloud:31-apache and docker:27-dind
-  // e.g. `>=88.0.0 <89.0.0` on kube-prometheus-stack) cap Renovate at patches inside a line it
+  // ARE maintained (the first dry run proposed 35-apache and 29-dind; the suffix is kept).
-  // has been told not to leave; raising those ceilings is deliberate per-component work and is
+  // CORRECTED 2026-10-30: quay.io/keycloak/keycloak was never a running reference — the operator
-  // NOT part of enabling the bot. Both lists are in decisions/2026-10-17-automated-upgrades.md.
+  // picks the server image — and the Keycloak version is now tracked via the operator URLs.
+  // Separately, the HelmRelease minor-locking ranges (9 of 12, e.g. `>=88.0.0 <89.0.0` on
+  // kube-prometheus-stack): THIS FILE USED TO SAY they cap Renovate at patches. They do not —
+  // Renovate WIDENS the range (runs 353/354). The `range-widen` rule above keeps that a reviewed
+  // PR rather than an auto-merge. Both lists are in decisions/2026-10-17-automated-upgrades.md.
   // platform/kyverno/tests/** ADDED 2026-10-17: those Kyverno policy fixtures pin `alpine:latest`
   // and a `conformance-runner:latest`, which are test inputs whose whole point is to be a fixed
   // shape, not software to keep current. `conformance/**` was already ignored for the same