fix(renovate): pin renovate-version — the action's default (39) rejects renovate.json5

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <[email protected]>

.gitea/workflows/renovate.yaml

@@ -74,12 +74,26 @@ name: renovate
 
 on:
   schedule:
-    # 03:15 UTC daily. renovate.json ALSO carries `"schedule": ["after 3am and before 6am"]` in
-    # America/New_York, and that inner schedule is the authoritative one — Renovate re-checks it and
-    # will decline to open PRs outside it. The two are deliberately both present: this cron decides
-    # when the process RUNS, renovate.json decides when it may ACT. Keeping the cron slightly ahead
-    # of the repo window means a run is always in flight when the window opens.
-    - cron: "15 3 * * *"
+    # 08:15 UTC daily. renovate.json ALSO carries `"schedule": ["after 3am and before 6am"]` with
+    # `"timezone": "America/New_York"`, and THAT inner schedule is authoritative — Renovate re-checks
+    # it and DECLINES TO OPEN PRs outside it. So this cron must fire INSIDE the local window, not
+    # merely near it.
+    #
+    # WAS `15 3 * * *`, WHICH NEVER WOULD HAVE WORKED (fixed 2026-10-18, before the first scheduled
+    # run). Gitea Actions cron is UTC, so 03:15 UTC is 23:15 the PREVIOUS EVENING in New York --
+    # 3h45m BEFORE the window opens, not "slightly ahead" of it as the original comment claimed.
+    # Every nightly run would have started, logged "not within schedule", opened zero PRs and
+    # exited SUCCESSFULLY. A green tick forever, and no updates ever: the exact "failure mode is a
+    # green tick" shape this repo keeps getting burned by, and indistinguishable from "nothing
+    # needed updating".
+    #
+    # THE WINDOW IN UTC MOVES WITH US DST, and a cron cannot follow it:
+    #   EDT (UTC-4, Mar-Nov): local 03:00-06:00 == 07:00-10:00 UTC
+    #   EST (UTC-5, Nov-Mar): local 03:00-06:00 == 08:00-11:00 UTC
+    # 08:15 UTC is the only quarter-hour comfortably inside BOTH (04:15 EDT / 03:15 EST), so the
+    # schedule keeps working across both switchovers without an edit. Do not "tidy" this back to an
+    # early-morning-UTC value without redoing this arithmetic.
+    - cron: "15 8 * * *"
   workflow_dispatch:
     inputs:
       dry_run:
@@ -138,8 +152,17 @@ jobs:
           # Pinned, and Renovate maintains this pin itself: renovate.json's enabledManagers
           # includes `github-actions`, and `helpers:pinGitHubActionDigests` is in its `extends`.
           # This is the one dependency in the repo whose updater is its own updater.
-          configurationFile: renovate.json
+          # MUST match the file's real name. #79 renamed it to renovate.json5 and left this line
+          # saying `renovate.json`; every scheduled run from 2026-10-18 then died in ~1s with
+          # ENOENT before Renovate started, and nothing in the gate noticed. ci/lint.sh now
+          # asserts that every `configurationFile:` here names a file that exists.
+          configurationFile: renovate.json5
           token: ${{ secrets.RENOVATE_TOKEN }}
+          # PINNED 2026-10-29. Unset, this action version runs Renovate `39` (action.yml
+          # `renovate-version` default at v41.0.9), i.e. 39.264.0, and renovate.json5 uses
+          # `managerFilePatterns` (>= 40.2.0): under 39.x validation fails with five errors and
+          # the run stops at CONFIG_VALIDATION. #79 validated against `latest`, not this.
+          renovate-version: 44.167.0
         env:
           # Self-hosted Gitea. `platform` + `endpoint` were the two values renovate.json's own
           # header said were "set at runtime by the operator's renovate runner" — this is that

apps/wave-0/pihole.yaml

@@ -73,7 +73,7 @@ spec:
         - name: FTLCONF_dns_rateLimit_count
           value: '0'
         - name: FTLCONF_misc_dnsmasq_lines
-          value: address=/${BASE_DOMAIN}/${GATEWAY_VIP};address=/unifi.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${UNIFI_L4_VIP};address=/crafty-mc.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${CRAFTY_L4_VIP};address=/pihole-dns.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${PIHOLE_DNS_VIP};address=/plex-vip.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${PLEX_L4_VIP}
+          value: local-ttl=60;address=/${BASE_DOMAIN}/${GATEWAY_VIP};address=/unifi.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${UNIFI_L4_VIP};address=/crafty-mc.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${CRAFTY_L4_VIP};address=/pihole-dns.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${PIHOLE_DNS_VIP};address=/plex-vip.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${PLEX_L4_VIP}
         - name: FTLCONF_webserver_api_password
           valueFrom:
             secretKeyRef:

catalog/pihole.yaml

@@ -143,8 +143,39 @@ env:
   # resolved to the Gateway VIP and a connect to :32400 there returned http=000. That is a silent
   # failure: the Plex web UI on plex.${BASE_DOMAIN} keeps working through the Gateway on 443 while
   # every client that takes the ADVERTISED connection cannot reach the server at all.
+  #
+  # ── local-ttl=60 — THE SPLIT-HORIZON ANSWER MUST BE CACHEABLE ────────────────────────────────
+  # MEASURED 2026-10-18, diagnosing "DNS flapping between the cluster ingress and the public IP":
+  #
+  #   dig home.keithjackson.dev @192.168.2.23 (pihole)  -> 192.168.2.20                TTL=0
+  #   dig home.keithjackson.dev @1.1.1.1      (public)  -> wan.home.keithjackson.dev   TTL=300
+  #   dig home.keithjackson.dev @192.168.2.1  (router)  -> wan....  TTL=153 -> 148 -> 143
+  #
+  # dnsmasq answers `address=` entries with **TTL 0** unless told otherwise, and that is the whole
+  # bug. The SOHO router forwards LAN queries to PiHole and CACHES the result, so:
+  #   * the CORRECT answer is UNCACHEABLE (TTL 0) -- the router must re-query PiHole on every
+  #     single lookup, which is maximum exposure to any momentary gap; while
+  #   * the WRONG answer is CACHEABLE FOR 5 MINUTES -- the instant the router falls back to its
+  #     upstream (standard forwarder behaviour when the forward target does not answer) it latches
+  #     the public WAN address and serves it to EVERY LAN CLIENT for the public record's 300s TTL.
+  # The decrementing TTL on the router's reply above is the proof it caches rather than forwarding
+  # live. So ONE sub-second PiHole gap -- a pod restart, an L2 announcement lease moving, an ARP
+  # flap, a kured node reboot -- becomes FIVE MINUTES of the whole house resolving to the WAN IP.
+  # That asymmetry, not the gap, is why this is visible as "flapping" rather than a blip.
+  #
+  # 60s is a deliberate floor, not a tuning knob: long enough to ride out a pod restart and a lease
+  # re-election (both seconds), short enough that a genuine VIP change still propagates inside a
+  # minute. These VIPs are pinned by name (`lbipam.cilium.io/ips`) and effectively static, so the
+  # propagation cost is theoretical while the flap it prevents is measured. If flaps persist across
+  # LONGER outages, raising this toward the public record's 300 would cover them -- at the cost of
+  # the same delay on a real change. It does NOT help when PiHole is down longer than the TTL: the
+  # cache expires, the router falls back, and the public answer latches again. That is a real
+  # outage, and the fix for it is PiHole availability, not DNS caching.
+  #
+  # Applies to every `address=` reply below (dnsmasq: local-ttl governs replies made from
+  # configuration, /etc/hosts and DHCP leases), so one directive covers all five names.
   - name: FTLCONF_misc_dnsmasq_lines
-    value: "address=/${BASE_DOMAIN}/${GATEWAY_VIP};address=/unifi.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${UNIFI_L4_VIP};address=/crafty-mc.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${CRAFTY_L4_VIP};address=/pihole-dns.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${PIHOLE_DNS_VIP};address=/plex-vip.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${PLEX_L4_VIP}"
+    value: "local-ttl=60;address=/${BASE_DOMAIN}/${GATEWAY_VIP};address=/unifi.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${UNIFI_L4_VIP};address=/crafty-mc.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${CRAFTY_L4_VIP};address=/pihole-dns.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${PIHOLE_DNS_VIP};address=/plex-vip.${BASE_DOMAIN}/${PLEX_L4_VIP}"
   # THE ADMIN PASSWORD, previously the ONE operator-set value declared nowhere. Sourced from
   # apps/wave-0/pihole-bootstrap-secret.sops.yaml (SOPS/age, same wave => same reconcile), which
   # carries the full rationale and the measurement that found it.

ci/lint.sh

@@ -27,3 +27,18 @@ fi
 
 yamllint -c "${CI_DIR}/yamllint.yaml" -f "${YAMLLINT_FORMAT:-standard}" "${files[@]}"
 ok "yaml/lint passed (${#files[@]} files)"
+
+# A workflow's `configurationFile:` must name a file that exists. Renovate's did not after #79
+# renamed renovate.json -> renovate.json5, and every scheduled run failed with ENOENT for 11 days
+# while the gate stayed green. Valid YAML, so yamllint cannot see it.
+missing=0
+while IFS=: read -r wf _ value; do
+  value="${value#*configurationFile:}"
+  value="$(echo "$value" | sed -E 's/#.*//; s/^[[:space:]"'\'']+//; s/[[:space:]"'\'']+$//')"
+  if [ -n "$value" ] && [ ! -e "$value" ]; then
+    err "${wf}: configurationFile '${value}' does not exist in the repo"
+    missing=1
+  fi
+done < <(grep -nE '^[[:space:]]*configurationFile:' .gitea/workflows/*.y*ml 2>/dev/null || true)
+[ "$missing" -eq 0 ] || exit 1
+ok "workflow configurationFile references resolve"

conformance/tests/l0-static/ha-control-plane-as-code/check.sh

@@ -445,8 +445,21 @@ join = re.search(r"--server https://\{\{\s*k3s_api_host", K3S_TEXT)
 check(join is not None,
       "roles/k3s_server does not join secondaries with `--server https://{{ k3s_api_host }}` "
       "— without a join target the servers are separate single-node clusters")
-join_when = re.search(r"--server https://.*?\n(?:.*\n){0,10}?\s*when:\s*k3s_server_mode\s*==\s*'secondary'",
-                      K3S_TEXT, re.S)
+# LINE-BOUNDED ON PURPOSE -- DO NOT "SIMPLIFY" BACK TO `.*` + re.S.
+# This was `--server https://.*?\n(?:.*\n){0,10}?\s*when:...` with re.S, which made every `.`
+# match newlines too. That is nested unbounded repetition (a `{0,10}` of a quantifier that can each
+# swallow the whole document), so a FAILED or late match backtracks exponentially. It cost
+# **19m54s of CPU in CI** (measured 2026-10-18 via `docker top` on the live job container) and made
+# the whole merge gate take ~28 minutes instead of ~2 on any change touching `infra/**` -- because
+# `ci/touched-requirements.sh` maps `infra/*` to R-ENV-01, which pulls in this whole-repo check.
+# It was latent for as long as the regex existed and only crossed the threshold when
+# roles/k3s_server grew by ~100 lines (the kubelet graceful-shutdown config, PR #71): K3S_TEXT is
+# every *.yml in that role concatenated, so the role growing is the input growing.
+# `[^\n]*` cannot cross a line, so the `{0,10}` is a genuine ten-line window with nothing to
+# backtrack into. Measured on the same input: 0.2 ms, same verdict (match found).
+join_when = re.search(
+    r"--server https://[^\n]*\n(?:[^\n]*\n){0,10}?[ \t]*when:[ \t]*k3s_server_mode[ \t]*==[ \t]*'secondary'",
+    K3S_TEXT)
 check(join_when is not None,
       "the join install task is not gated on k3s_server_mode == 'secondary' — the founder "
       "would also try to join itself")

decisions/2026-10-17-automated-upgrades.md

@@ -185,6 +185,55 @@ Measured against the live cluster and nodes, read-only, on 2026-10-17.
 - **`renovate.json` parses** as valid JSON after my edits (`json.load`).
 - **kured is not installed** and the string `kured` appears nowhere in the repo — greenfield.
 
+### CORRECTION 2026-10-18 — the first real run FAILED, and the sentinel design was wrong
+
+`ansible-playbook playbooks/unattended-upgrades.yml -e k3s_hosts=k3s_prod` failed on all three
+nodes at the package task:
+
+```
+fatal: [k3s-prod-1]: FAILED! => "No package matching 'update-notifier-common' is available"
+```
+
+**`update-notifier-common` is an UBUNTU package and does not exist in Debian.** Measured on trixie:
+`apt-cache policy update-notifier-common` → `Candidate: (none)`. The original entry asserted this
+package "owns the hook that creates /var/run/reboot-required" — true on Ubuntu, false here, and the
+role could never have worked. This was the exact risk the first version of this entry flagged ("the
+`find` patterns are a guess at which package ships what") landing in a worse place than predicted:
+not a wrong glob, a nonexistent package.
+
+Three further measurements settled what to do instead:
+
+* `/usr/share/update-notifier/notify-reboot-required` is **absent**.
+* **No `linux-image-*` postinst references `notify-reboot-required`** — invoking it is an Ubuntu
+  patch, so merely placing a script at that path would never be called.
+* No hook under `/etc/apt/apt.conf.d` or `/etc/kernel/` mentions `reboot-required`.
+
+So Debian trixie has **no stock mechanism at all**, and the role now ships the writer itself:
+`/usr/local/sbin/k3s-notify-reboot-required` (compares the running kernel against the newest
+installed via `linux-version`, from `linux-base`, which every `linux-image` depends on — measured
+`linux-base 4.12.1` present) plus a `DPkg::Post-Invoke` hook at
+`/etc/apt/apt.conf.d/99-k3s-reboot-required`. `/run` is a tmpfs (measured), so the sentinel
+self-clears on boot and needs no cleanup task.
+
+The verify assert changed shape too: it was a `find` glob over `/etc/kernel/postinst.d` and
+`/etc/apt/apt.conf.d` for `*update-notifier*` / `*unattended-upgrades*`. That glob was **weaker
+than it looked** — it would have matched Debian's own `unattended-upgrades` apt conffile and
+reported "sentinel writer present" while no writer existed. It now stats the two exact paths this
+role owns and requires the script to be executable.
+
+**Newly verified (this correction):** the sentinel script was executed on prod-1 as the
+unprivileged `k3s` user under `sh -x`. It resolved `running=7.1.8+deb13-amd64`,
+`newest=7.1.8+deb13-amd64`, took the equal branch, exited 0 and wrote nothing — correct, since the
+running kernel *is* the newest. `sh -n` and `bash -n` clean.
+
+**Still NOT verified after this correction:** the *writing* half. Because running == newest on all
+three nodes, the `touch` path has never executed, so I have not seen the sentinel actually created,
+nor seen kured react to it. The honest test is the operator's next kernel upgrade. Also unverified:
+whether a `DPkg::Post-Invoke` hook fires in the `unattended-upgrades` code path specifically (it
+runs dpkg, so it should, but that is inference) — and whether `linux-version sort --reverse` orders
+a mixed backports/stable kernel set the way I assume when a 6.12 and a 7.1 are both installed. It
+produced the right answer with the current set; a future set could differ.
+
 ## What I did NOT verify
 
 The honest list. Most of this needs an actual upgrade cycle, which I did not and could not run.

decisions/2026-10-18-ha-check-catastrophic-regex.md

@@ -0,0 +1,76 @@
+---
+date: 2026-10-18
+branch: fix/ha-check-catastrophic-regex
+title: "One regex made the merge gate take 28 minutes instead of 2"
+---
+
+## What changed
+
+The merge gate started taking **~28 minutes** instead of its usual **<2 minutes**, on every change
+touching `infra/**`. One regex was responsible for essentially all of it.
+
+`conformance/tests/l0-static/ha-control-plane-as-code/check.sh` contained:
+
+```python
+join_when = re.search(r"--server https://.*?\n(?:.*\n){0,10}?\s*when:\s*k3s_server_mode\s*==\s*'secondary'",
+                      K3S_TEXT, re.S)
+```
+
+With `re.S`, every `.` also matches newlines, so `.*?` and the nested `(?:.*\n){0,10}?` can each
+consume the entire document. That is **nested unbounded repetition** — ten levels of a quantifier
+that can each swallow everything — and a failed or late match backtracks exponentially.
+
+Replaced `.` with `[^\n]*` and dropped `re.S`, so the `{0,10}` is a genuine ten-line window with
+nothing to backtrack into. Same intent, same verdict, no DOTALL.
+
+**Why it surfaced now, and it was mine.** `K3S_TEXT` is every `*.yml` in `roles/k3s_server`
+concatenated. The regex was latent for as long as it existed; **PR #71 added ~100 lines to that role
+(the kubelet graceful-shutdown config), which grew the input past the point where exponential
+backtracking stopped being survivable.** Nothing about the check changed — my change grew its input.
+
+**Why only `infra/**` changes were slow.** `ci/touched-requirements.sh:268` maps `infra/*` to
+`R-ENV-01`, and the resulting L0 run is `--include-scope whole-repo --requirements R-ENV-01`, which
+pulls in this whole-repo check. Doc-only and `platform/**` changes never selected it, which is why
+#69 (1m55s) and #72 (1m53s) stayed fast while #71 (27m44s), the #73 merge (27m46s) and #75 all ran
+~28 minutes.
+
+## What I verified
+
+* **The hot spot, by measurement rather than reading.** `docker top` on the live CI job container for
+  run #299 showed `python3 -` with **19:54 of CPU time** under
+  `ha-control-plane-as-code/check.sh`, inside
+  `conformance/run.sh --layer l0 --include-scope whole-repo --requirements R-ENV-01`.
+* **Reproduced locally**: the check did not finish within a 100-second budget on an unmodified
+  checkout.
+* **Localised to the exact line** by extracting the inline Python and running it under
+  `faulthandler.dump_traceback_later(25)`, which named `re/__init__.py:177 in search` called from
+  the `join_when` line — not inferred from reading the patterns.
+* **The pattern is unique in the repo**: `grep -rlnE "\{0,[0-9]+\}\?" conformance/tests/l0-static/*/check.sh`
+  returns only this file, so there is no sibling with the same hazard.
+* **The fix is fast AND verdict-preserving**, tested against the real `K3S_TEXT` (22,179 chars, 403
+  lines): the new regex matches (`YES`) in **0.2 ms**. Sanity-checked that the thing it looks for
+  genuinely exists — one `--server https://` and three `k3s_server_mode == 'secondary'` occurrences.
+* **The whole check now runs in 0.199s, rc 0, 115 assertions**, with the same success message as
+  before.
+
+## What I did NOT verify
+
+* **I did not re-time the full gate in CI after the fix.** The expectation is that `infra/**` changes
+  return to the ~2-minute range, but that is arithmetic from the 19m54s figure, not a measured
+  post-fix run. The PR's own CI run is the first real datapoint — read it.
+* **I did not audit the other 23 L0 checks for different performance pathologies.** This one was
+  found because it was actively burning CPU in a live job; a check that is merely slow (not
+  exponential) would not have stood out, and `ci/gate.sh` has **no per-stage timing** at all
+  (`grep -nE "SECONDS|date \+|elapsed"` finds nothing), so there is no data on where the remaining
+  time goes.
+* **Nothing prevents this class of bug returning.** No check asserts gate stage runtime, and no lint
+  forbids nested quantifiers under `re.S`. A timing budget per stage, or a `re` lint, would close it;
+  neither is written here.
+* **I did not verify my claim about *why* only `infra/**` was affected beyond the path mapping and
+  the observed durations.** The correlation is strong (5 runs, two clear clusters) and the live
+  process list confirms the `--requirements R-ENV-01` scope, but I did not read
+  `conformance/run.sh`'s scope-selection logic end to end.
+* The regex rewrite assumes the `when:` clause is indented with spaces or tabs only (`[ \t]*`). A
+  file using some other whitespace before `when:` would now fail to match where the old DOTALL
+  version would have succeeded. Unlikely in YAML, and the current input matches, but it is a
+  narrowing.

decisions/2026-10-18-pihole-local-ttl.md

@@ -0,0 +1,82 @@
+---
+date: 2026-10-18
+branch: fix/pihole-local-ttl
+title: "The split-horizon answer was uncacheable while the wrong answer cached for 5 minutes"
+---
+
+## What changed
+
+The operator reported DNS "flapping between the cluster ingress and the router (public IP)".
+PiHole was not at fault — both replicas answer correctly and consistently. The bug is an
+**asymmetry in cacheability** that we created.
+
+Measured on prod 2026-10-18:
+
+```
+dig home.keithjackson.dev @192.168.2.23 (pihole)  -> 192.168.2.20                TTL=0
+dig home.keithjackson.dev @1.1.1.1      (public)  -> wan.home.keithjackson.dev   TTL=300
+dig home.keithjackson.dev @192.168.2.1  (router)  -> wan....  TTL=153 -> 148 -> 143
+```
+
+dnsmasq answers `address=` entries with **TTL 0** unless told otherwise. The SOHO router forwards
+LAN queries to PiHole and **caches** the result — the decrementing TTL above is the proof it caches
+rather than forwarding live. So:
+
+* the **correct** answer is **uncacheable** (TTL 0): the router must re-query PiHole on *every*
+  lookup, which is maximum exposure to any momentary gap;
+* the **wrong** answer is **cacheable for 300s**: the instant the router falls back to its upstream
+  (standard forwarder behaviour when the forward target does not answer) it latches the public WAN
+  address and serves it to **every LAN client** for five minutes.
+
+So **one sub-second PiHole gap becomes five minutes of the whole house resolving to the WAN IP** —
+then it expires, the router re-queries PiHole, gets TTL 0 again, and is immediately re-exposed.
+That asymmetry, not the gap itself, is why this is visible as flapping rather than a blip.
+
+Fix: `local-ttl=60` prepended to `FTLCONF_misc_dnsmasq_lines` in `catalog/pihole.yaml`, so the
+private answer is cacheable and a short gap is invisible to clients. `apps/wave-0/pihole.yaml`
+regenerated with the canonical render command.
+
+## What I verified
+
+* **PiHole is NOT the fault.** Both replicas, queried directly by pod IP, answer `192.168.2.20`;
+  the VIP returned it 6/6; this workstation 8/8. DHCP hands out only `192.168.2.23`.
+* **The router caches rather than forwards live** — three successive queries returned TTL 153, 148,
+  143 (decrementing), which a pure forwarder could not do.
+* **The TTL asymmetry**, as quoted above: 0 from PiHole, 300 from public DNS.
+* **The router does answer DNS and returns the public chain** (`wan.home.keithjackson.dev` → the WAN
+  address), so a fallback always has a wrong answer available.
+* **`local-ttl` is the right directive**: dnsmasq applies it to replies made from configuration,
+  `/etc/hosts` and DHCP leases, which covers all five `address=` names with one directive. It is a
+  standalone option, not a sub-field of `address=`, so prepending it to the `;`-separated
+  `FTLCONF_misc_dnsmasq_lines` list is syntactically correct.
+* **The render is clean and scoped**: `catalog/render.py --all catalog -o apps --wave-layout
+  --no-image-automation` (the canonical command `ci/render-golden.sh` asserts against, and
+  deliberately **not** `--emit-waves`) changed exactly two files — `catalog/pihole.yaml` and
+  `apps/wave-0/pihole.yaml` — and the rendered diff is the single `local-ttl=60;` prefix.
+
+## What I did NOT verify
+
+* **UNAPPLIED.** Nothing has been reconciled, so I have not observed PiHole serving a non-zero TTL,
+  nor the router caching the private answer, nor the flap stopping. **Verify after merge with
+  `dig home.keithjackson.dev @192.168.2.23` (expect `TTL=60`, not 0) and then the same query at the
+  router (expect `192.168.2.20` with a decrementing TTL, not `wan.…`).**
+* **I did not confirm that PiHole/FTL accepts `local-ttl` via `FTLCONF_misc_dnsmasq_lines`.** The
+  directive is valid dnsmasq and the field is a passthrough, but `catalog/pihole.yaml`'s own header
+  records that FTL has previously written a bogus line into `dnsmasq.conf` and reported "0 invalid"
+  — so a malformed passthrough fails *silently*. If the TTL is still 0 after merge, that is the
+  cause, not this reasoning. Check the pod's `/etc/pihole/dnsmasq.conf`.
+* **60s is chosen, not derived.** Long enough for a pod restart and a lease re-election (both
+  seconds); it does **nothing** for an outage longer than the TTL, where the cache expires and the
+  public answer latches again. That is a real availability problem, not a caching one.
+* **This does not remove the trigger.** `192.168.2.23` is served by **two** LoadBalancer Services
+  (`pihole-dns-tcp`, `pihole-dns-udp`) with **two independently-elected L2 announcement leases**, so
+  two nodes can ARP for the same address at once — they sat on different nodes earlier the same day
+  (tcp on prod-2, udp on prod-1). The same pattern applies to crafty (`.22`) and unifi (`.21`).
+  Merging each pair into one mixed-protocol Service would remove the class; the operator has parked
+  that decision, and it is deliberately **not** in this change.
+* **Client-side bypasses are unexamined.** A device with its own resolver, or a browser with
+  DNS-over-HTTPS, bypasses PiHole entirely and always gets the public answer; this fix cannot help
+  there. Only this one workstation's resolver chain was inspected.
+* **No alert fires if the split-horizon answer regresses to the public address.** Nothing probes
+  `home.keithjackson.dev` from a LAN vantage point and compares it against `${GATEWAY_VIP}`, so the
+  next recurrence would again be found by a human noticing. That gap is not closed here.

decisions/2026-10-18-renovate-cron-window.md

@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
+---
+date: 2026-10-18
+branch: fix/renovate-cron-window
+title: "The Renovate cron fired outside Renovate's own schedule, so it would never have opened a PR"
+---
+
+## What changed
+
+`.gitea/workflows/renovate.yaml` shipped (PR #73) with `cron: "15 3 * * *"`. **That schedule could
+never have produced a single PR.**
+
+Gitea Actions cron is **UTC**. `renovate.json` carries `"schedule": ["after 3am and before 6am"]`
+with `"timezone": "America/New_York"`, and that inner schedule is **authoritative** — Renovate
+re-checks it and declines to open PRs outside it. So:
+
+```
+cron 03:15 UTC  ->  23:15 EDT, the PREVIOUS EVENING in New York
+window          ->  03:00-06:00 local
+inside?         ->  NO (3h45m before the window opens)
+```
+
+The original comment claimed the cron was "slightly ahead of the repo window ... so a run is always
+in flight when the window opens". It is 3h45m *behind*, on the previous day. Every nightly run would
+have started, logged "not within schedule", opened **zero** PRs and exited **successfully** — a
+green tick forever, indistinguishable from "nothing needed updating". That is the same
+"failure-mode-is-a-green-tick" shape this repo keeps hitting, and it would have hidden the ~30
+pending updates PR #73 was written to surface.
+
+Changed to `cron: "15 8 * * *"`, chosen to survive DST rather than to be tidy. The window's UTC
+position moves:
+
+| | local window | in UTC |
+|---|---|---|
+| EDT (UTC-4, Mar–Nov) | 03:00–06:00 | 07:00–10:00 |
+| EST (UTC-5, Nov–Mar) | 03:00–06:00 | 08:00–11:00 |
+
+`08:15 UTC` is inside **both** (04:15 EDT / 03:15 EST), so no edit is needed at either switchover.
+A cron cannot follow DST, so this is the only way to get it right once.
+
+## What I verified
+
+* **The defect, by arithmetic rather than assertion:** `datetime(2026,10,18,03,15, UTC)` converted to
+  `America/New_York` via `zoneinfo` is `2026-10-17 23:15 EDT`; `3 <= hour < 6` is **False**.
+* **The fix, at both DST extremes:** `08:15 UTC` → `04:15 EDT` in July and `03:15 EST` in December,
+  both inside `03:00–06:00`. Computed, not reasoned.
+* **The inner schedule really is authoritative and really is set:** `renovate.json` on `main` carries
+  `timezone = America/New_York` and `schedule = ['after 3am and before 6am']`.
+* **`RENOVATE_TOKEN` now exists** as a repository Actions secret (listed by name via the Gitea API
+  alongside `SETTINGS_API_TOKEN`), so the workflow's fail-hard preflight will pass. It did not exist
+  when PR #73 was authored.
+* The edited workflow parses as YAML.
+
+## What I did NOT verify
+
+* **Renovate has still never executed.** This fixes *when* it runs, not *whether it works*. No run
+  has happened, so nothing here proves it extracts dependencies, authenticates to Gitea, or opens a
+  usable PR.
+* **`enabledManagers` may silently disable the custom managers — UNRESOLVED and the likelier
+  remaining bug.** `renovate.json` lists `enabledManagers: [..., 'regex', ...]` and defines
+  `customManagers` (correct modern key; `regexManagers` is absent, which is right). But modern
+  Renovate names the custom manager **`custom.regex`** in `enabledManagers`, not bare `regex`. If
+  the bare name is invalid or ignored, every inline `# renovate:` marker in the tree does nothing —
+  including the `external-snapshotter` `newTag` pin PR #73 flagged as probably inert. **I did not
+  change it**, because guessing at a config key that could fail validation and take the whole run
+  down is worse than leaving a question that one dry run answers definitively. The `dry_run: true`
+  dispatch log settles it: look for a per-manager dependency-extraction count, and for any config
+  validation warning naming `regex`.
+* **Whether a dry run inside vs outside the window differs usefully.** Renovate honours its schedule
+  even in dry-run, so a manual dispatch outside 03:00–06:00 local will also log "not within
+  schedule". That makes the first dispatch's output less informative than it looks; to see what
+  Renovate *would* do, either dispatch inside the local window or override the schedule for that
+  run. Not tested either way.
+* **No alert fires if the schedule stops firing.** PR #73 recorded this gap and it is still open: a
+  Renovate workflow that silently stops running (disabled Actions, expired token, deleted secret)
+  produces no signal at all. Closing it needs a check on last-successful-run age, which nothing
+  does.
+* No conformance test asserts the cron falls inside `renovate.json`'s window, so this exact bug can
+  return. A static check comparing the two is feasible and is not written.

decisions/2026-10-18-renovate-invalid-config.md

@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
+---
+date: 2026-10-18
+branch: fix/renovate-invalid-config
+title: "renovate.json was invalid, so the first manual run errored out"
+---
+
+## What changed
+
+The operator ran the Renovate workflow manually and it **failed**. The cause is not the workflow:
+**`renovate.json` was never a valid Renovate config.**
+
+It carried five pseudo-comment keys — `_comment`, `_kubernetes_comment`, `_unmanageable_comment`,
+`_ignorePaths_comment`, `_docker_comment` — because JSON has no comments. Renovate **rejects unknown
+top-level options**, so the entire config failed validation. Proven with the official validator
+rather than inferred:
+
+```
+$ podman run --rm -v "$PWD/renovate.json:/tmp/renovate.json:ro,Z" \
+    ghcr.io/renovatebot/renovate renovate-config-validator /tmp/renovate.json
+ERROR: Found errors in configuration
+  Invalid configuration option: _comment
+  Invalid configuration option: _docker_comment
+  Invalid configuration option: _ignorePaths_comment
+  Invalid configuration option: _kubernetes_comment
+  Invalid configuration option: _unmanageable_comment
+```
+
+This is the second independent reason Renovate had never worked, on top of PR #77's cron firing
+outside `renovate.json`'s own schedule window. Either alone was sufficient to produce "nothing ever
+happens"; #73 shipped both.
+
+**Converted `renovate.json` → `renovate.json5`.** JSON5 permits real `//` comments, and Renovate
+discovers `renovate.json5` natively — nothing in `.gitea/` or `ci/` pins the old filename (only
+prose inside comments), and no `RENOVATE_CONFIG_FILE` is set. Every word of the original rationale
+is preserved as comments positioned next to what it explains, which a flattened `description`
+string would have lost.
+
+A header on the new file records the failure, the validator command, and the instruction to run it
+before committing — this class of bug is invisible to the repo's own gate.
+
+## What I verified
+
+* **The exact failure**, from the official validator, quoted above. Not read off a log, not inferred
+  from the workflow.
+* **The fix validates**: the same validator against `renovate.json5` returns
+  `INFO: Config validated successfully against 1 file(s)`.
+* **Nothing was dropped in the conversion**, checked programmatically against `git show
+  HEAD:renovate.json`: 18 non-comment keys before, 18 after, **no missing keys, no extra keys, and
+  no key whose value changed**. `docker: {enabled: true}` confirmed still present — the validator
+  prints a normalisation diff that mentions it, which is its own migration suggestion, not a
+  removal.
+* **74 comment lines survive** in the new file, so the rationale is intact.
+* **`RENOVATE_TOKEN` exists** as a repository Actions secret (listed by name via the Gitea API), so
+  the workflow's fail-hard preflight is satisfied.
+* **A suspicion was DISPROVED:** `enabledManagers` containing bare `regex` was thought to need to be
+  `custom.regex`, which would have silently disabled every inline `# renovate:` marker. The
+  validator accepts `regex`, so that concern was unfounded and nothing here changes it.
+* Nothing functionally references `renovate.json` by name — `grep -rn "renovate\.json" .gitea/ ci/
+  conformance/` returns only comment prose.
+
+## What I did NOT verify
+
+* **Renovate has still never completed a run.** This removes one of two blockers; PR #77 removes the
+  other. Neither is merged, so **no successful Renovate run has been observed** and I cannot say the
+  bot works — only that these two specific defects are fixed.
+* **I did not re-run the workflow after the fix.** The honest test is a `workflow_dispatch` with
+  `dry_run: true` once both this and #77 are merged. Expect ~30 dependencies behind, rate-limited to
+  `prHourlyLimit: 2` / `prConcurrentLimit: 5`.
+* **Whether the managers actually extract anything.** A valid config that matches no files is still
+  a no-op. The dry-run log's per-manager dependency counts are the only thing that proves the
+  `managerFilePatterns` are right, and I have not seen them.
+* **Whether `renovate.json5` is honoured by the pinned Renovate version in the workflow.** JSON5
+  discovery is long-standing and the validator accepted the file, but the workflow's image tag was
+  not cross-checked against the version that added it.
+* **Nothing in the gate catches an invalid Renovate config.** This bug would have recurred silently.
+  A one-line L0 check shelling out to `renovate-config-validator` would close it; it is not written
+  here, and `conformance/**` is a sensitive path.
+* I did not re-measure branch protection or runner state (CLAUDE.md §2b).

decisions/2026-10-29-renovate-config-filename.md

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+---
+date: 2026-10-29
+branch: fix/renovate-config-filename
+title: Renovate has failed every run since #79 — the workflow still named renovate.json
+---
+
+## What changed
+
+**`.gitea/workflows/renovate.yaml`** — `configurationFile: renovate.json` → `renovate.json5`.
+
+PR #79 (`fix/renovate-invalid-config`) renamed the config to `renovate.json5` and did not update
+the one line in the workflow that names it. Measured 2026-10-29 from the Gitea Actions log of run
+322 (task 513, schedule, 08:15 UTC):
+
+    Error: ENOENT: no such file or directory, stat '/workspace/Home-Network/home-network-k3s-impl/renovate.json'
+
+Runs 315–322 (2026-10-22 → 10-29, every one listed) are all `failure` on the `schedule` event,
+each failing in about one second. Renovate never started. `RENOVATE_TOKEN` **does** exist as a
+repository Actions secret (listed by name via the API; value not read), so the token preflight
+passes and this filename is the only blocker observed.
+
+**`ci/lint.sh`** — a new assertion after yamllint: every non-comment `configurationFile:` key in
+`.gitea/workflows/*.y*ml` must name a path that exists. This is valid YAML, so yamllint cannot see
+it, and the gate stayed green through 11 days of failures.
+
+**Second blocker, same PR:** the workflow did not pin a Renovate version, so
+`renovatebot/[email protected]` ran its default, Renovate **39** (`action.yml`:
+`renovate-version` `default: '39'`, read at that tag). `renovate.json5` uses `managerFilePatterns`,
+which needs >= 40.2.0. Under 39.264.0 the validator rejects the config with five errors. This was
+found and reproduced by the image-pipeline worker (PR #81). #79 had validated against `latest`. Pinned
+`renovate-version: 44.167.0`, the version the config validates clean against per that worker.
+
+## What I verified
+
+- The root cause, from the run log quoted above, and that `origin/main` has `renovate.json5` and
+  no `renovate.json` (`git ls-tree`).
+- The new guard, both ways, run standalone: on this branch it prints
+  `workflow configurationFile references resolve`, rc 0. With the line reverted to `renovate.json`
+  it prints `configurationFile 'renovate.json' does not exist in the repo`, rc 1. My first version
+  also matched its own explanatory comment in the workflow and failed. That is why the grep is
+  anchored to non-comment lines.
+- Toolbox gate: result and rc are reported in the PR, not predicted here.
+
+## What I did NOT verify
+
+- **The 39.x rejection and the 44.167.0 pass were not reproduced by me.** I confirmed only the
+  action's default (`'39'`). The validation results are the PR #81 worker's.
+- **Renovate has still never completed a run.** This removes the observed blocker. Others may
+  follow it. The test is a `workflow_dispatch` with `dry_run: true` after merge, and its log is
+  the first evidence that Renovate authenticates, extracts dependencies, and honours `.json5`.
+- **The `enabledManagers: ["regex"]` vs `custom.regex` question** (#73, #77) is still open. The
+  same dry-run log answers it: look for the regex/custom manager's dependency-extraction count.
+- **No alert for "Renovate keeps failing".** The guard prevents this specific cause from recurring.
+  Nothing notices a scheduled workflow that is red every day. That gap stays open.
+- **Sensitive path.** `.gitea/**` and `ci/**` are both in `approval-policy.json`. CI will block
+  on `approval-policy` until the operator posts `/approve-override` as a review. The local gate
+  reports that stage as N/A.

infra/ansible/roles/unattended_upgrades/README.md

@@ -20,10 +20,19 @@ restarted, and reboots are delegated to **kured** (`platform/kured`).
 
 Deploying either alone produces a mechanism that looks healthy and does nothing:
 
-- **kured alone** watches a file that nothing creates. Measured 2026-10-17:
-  `update-notifier-common` — the package that owns the hook which writes
-  `/var/run/reboot-required` — was **not installed on any node**. kured would sit at 1/1 Running
-  reporting `kured_reboot_required=0` forever.
+- **kured alone** watches a file that **nothing on Debian ever creates**. Measured 2026-10-18,
+  after a first attempt to install Ubuntu's `update-notifier-common` failed on all three nodes
+  with *"No package matching 'update-notifier-common' is available"*:
+  - `apt-cache policy update-notifier-common` → `Candidate: (none)` — the package does not exist
+    in Debian; it is Ubuntu-only.
+  - `/usr/share/update-notifier/notify-reboot-required` → absent.
+  - **No `linux-image-*` postinst references `notify-reboot-required`** — calling it is an Ubuntu
+    patch, so even dropping a script at that path would never be invoked.
+  - No hook under `/etc/apt/apt.conf.d` or `/etc/kernel/` mentions `reboot-required`.
+
+  So **this role ships the writer itself** (`/usr/local/sbin/k3s-notify-reboot-required` plus a
+  `DPkg::Post-Invoke` hook) rather than installing a package. Without it kured would sit at 1/1
+  Running reporting `kured_reboot_required=0` forever.
 - **this role alone** installs patches that a long-running process never picks up, and when a
   reboot *is* needed there is nothing safe to take it. `Automatic-Reboot "true"` is not the
   answer: three control-plane nodes with etcd quorum 2/3, each rebooting at its own time, is how
@@ -36,7 +45,7 @@ Measured on all three prod nodes, 2026-10-17:
 | | |
 |---|---|
 | `unattended-upgrades` | **not installed** |
-| `update-notifier-common` | **not installed** |
+| `update-notifier-common` | **not installable** — Ubuntu-only, `Candidate: (none)` on trixie |
 | `needrestart` | **not installed** |
 | `apt-mark showhold` | **empty** — no package held on any node |
 | `/etc/apt/preferences.d/` | **empty** — no apt pin declares the backports-kernel intent |
@@ -157,7 +166,9 @@ first two):
 ```bash
 ssh [email protected] 'apt-config dump | grep -iE "unattended-upgrade::(automatic-reboot|package-blacklist|origins)"'
 ssh [email protected] 'systemctl list-timers apt-daily-upgrade.timer --no-pager'
-ssh [email protected] 'ls -la /var/run/reboot-required 2>&1; dpkg -l update-notifier-common needrestart unattended-upgrades | tail -4'
+ssh [email protected] 'ls -la /var/run/reboot-required* 2>&1 | head -2
+  ls -l /usr/local/sbin/k3s-notify-reboot-required /etc/apt/apt.conf.d/99-k3s-reboot-required 2>&1
+  dpkg -l needrestart unattended-upgrades | tail -3'
 ```
 
 Expect: `Automatic-Reboot "false"`, a blacklist containing `^linux-`, an `Origins-Pattern`

infra/ansible/roles/unattended_upgrades/defaults/main.yml

@@ -92,13 +92,11 @@ unattended_upgrades_enabled: false
 unattended_upgrades_packages:
   # The upgrader itself.
   - unattended-upgrades
-  # THE SENTINEL WRITER, AND THE WHOLE REASON kured CAN WORK. On Debian, /var/run/reboot-required is
-  # not created by the kernel, by apt, or by unattended-upgrades — it is created by a hook shipped in
-  # update-notifier-common. Measured ABSENT on all three nodes. Without this package the file is
-  # never written, kured correctly never reboots, every dashboard stays green, and the reboot half of
-  # this PR is an elaborate no-op. The role asserts the hook exists after install rather than
-  # assuming the package shipped one (see tasks/main.yml).
-  - update-notifier-common
+  # NOTE: `update-notifier-common` was listed here and REMOVED (2026-10-18). It is an UBUNTU
+  # package and does not exist in Debian at all -- `apt-cache policy update-notifier-common` on
+  # trixie returns `Candidate: (none)`, so the play failed outright with "No package matching
+  # 'update-notifier-common' is available" on all three nodes. The sentinel writer is now provided
+  # by this role itself; see unattended_upgrades_sentinel_* below and tasks/main.yml.
   # Restarts services still mapped to a deleted library after a security upgrade. Without it a
   # security-only policy patches bytes on disk that no running process reads — see DECISION 3.
   - needrestart
@@ -170,3 +168,32 @@ unattended_upgrades_needrestart_blacklist:
 unattended_upgrades_download_time: "03:30"
 unattended_upgrades_upgrade_time: "04:00"
 unattended_upgrades_randomised_delay: 60m
+
+
+# ── THE REBOOT SENTINEL, PROVIDED BY THIS ROLE ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+# /var/run/reboot-required is the ONLY thing kured watches, and on Debian trixie **nothing creates
+# it**. Measured on all three nodes 2026-10-18:
+#   * `update-notifier-common` (which owns that hook on Ubuntu) has `Candidate: (none)` — the
+#     package does not exist in Debian. Installing it is what broke the first run of this play.
+#   * `/usr/share/update-notifier/notify-reboot-required` is absent.
+#   * NO `linux-image-*` postinst references `notify-reboot-required` — calling it is an Ubuntu
+#     patch, not Debian behaviour, so merely dropping a script at that path would never be invoked.
+#   * No hook under /etc/apt/apt.conf.d or /etc/kernel/ mentions reboot-required.
+# So the writer has to be ours. Without it kured is a permanent, INVISIBLE no-op: it stays 1/1
+# Running and reports kured_reboot_required=0 forever, which is the "failure mode is a green tick"
+# shape this repo keeps getting burned by.
+#
+# MECHANISM: a dpkg Post-Invoke hook runs a script that compares the RUNNING kernel against the
+# newest INSTALLED one and touches the sentinel when they differ. Deliberately kernel-only, which
+# matches the design: unattended-upgrades is security-only with `^linux-` blacklisted, so it will
+# essentially never set this — the sentinel appears when the OPERATOR deliberately runs the
+# node_baseline kernel play, and kured then automates only the mechanical reboot.
+#
+# It uses `linux-version` (from `linux-base`, a dependency of every linux-image package, so
+# guaranteed present — measured `linux-base 4.12.1` installed) rather than parsing `dpkg -l`
+# output, because kernel version ordering is not string ordering.
+#
+# /run is a tmpfs (measured), so the sentinel self-clears on boot: after a reboot the running
+# kernel IS the newest and the script writes nothing. No cleanup task is needed, and none exists.
+unattended_upgrades_sentinel_script: /usr/local/sbin/k3s-notify-reboot-required
+unattended_upgrades_sentinel_hook: /etc/apt/apt.conf.d/99-k3s-reboot-required

infra/ansible/roles/unattended_upgrades/tasks/main.yml

@@ -35,9 +35,9 @@
       tags: [packages, config, verify]
 
     # ── PACKAGES ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-    - name: Install unattended-upgrades, the reboot-sentinel writer and needrestart
-      # update-notifier-common is NOT optional padding: it owns the hook that creates
-      # /var/run/reboot-required, which is the only thing kured watches. See defaults/main.yml.
+    - name: Install unattended-upgrades and needrestart
+      # The reboot-sentinel writer is NOT a package here. On Debian nothing ships one -- see
+      # defaults/main.yml -- so this role installs its own script and dpkg hook, two tasks below.
       ansible.builtin.apt:
         name: "{{ unattended_upgrades_packages }}"
         state: present
@@ -45,6 +45,60 @@
         cache_valid_time: 3600
       tags: [packages]
 
+    # ── THE REBOOT SENTINEL WRITER (ours, because Debian ships none) ────────────────────────────
+    # Full rationale and the four measurements behind it: defaults/main.yml. Short version: kured
+    # watches /var/run/reboot-required and nothing on Debian creates it, so without these two files
+    # the entire reboot half is an invisible no-op.
+    - name: Install the reboot-sentinel writer
+      ansible.builtin.copy:
+        dest: "{{ unattended_upgrades_sentinel_script }}"
+        owner: root
+        group: root
+        mode: "0755"
+        content: |
+          #!/bin/sh
+          # MANAGED BY ANSIBLE -- infra/ansible/roles/unattended_upgrades. Local edits are reverted.
+          #
+          # Touch /var/run/reboot-required when the RUNNING kernel is not the newest INSTALLED one.
+          # kured watches that path; see the role's defaults/main.yml for why this is ours to ship.
+          #
+          # `linux-version` comes from linux-base (a dependency of every linux-image package), and
+          # is used rather than sorting `dpkg -l` output because kernel version ordering is not
+          # string ordering. If it is somehow missing, exit 0 and write nothing: a dpkg hook must
+          # never fail an apt transaction, and a missing sentinel is caught by the verify assert.
+          set -eu
+          command -v linux-version >/dev/null 2>&1 || exit 0
+
+          running="$(uname -r)"
+          newest="$(linux-version list 2>/dev/null | linux-version sort --reverse 2>/dev/null | head -n1)"
+
+          # No newest (nothing installed we can read) -> nothing to say.
+          [ -n "$newest" ] || exit 0
+
+          if [ "$running" != "$newest" ]; then
+            touch /var/run/reboot-required 2>/dev/null || exit 0
+            # kured only needs the file, but the .pkgs companion is what an operator reads to find
+            # out WHY a node is waiting, so write a reason rather than an empty marker.
+            printf 'linux-image-%s\n' "$newest" > /var/run/reboot-required.pkgs 2>/dev/null || true
+          fi
+          exit 0
+      tags: [packages, config]
+
+    - name: Install the dpkg hook that runs the sentinel writer
+      # Post-Invoke, so it runs after dpkg has finished and a newly installed kernel is already
+      # visible to `linux-version list`. `|| true` so a failure here can never abort an apt
+      # transaction -- an unwritten sentinel is a missed reboot, but a broken apt is a broken node.
+      ansible.builtin.copy:
+        dest: "{{ unattended_upgrades_sentinel_hook }}"
+        owner: root
+        group: root
+        mode: "0644"
+        content: |
+          // MANAGED BY ANSIBLE -- infra/ansible/roles/unattended_upgrades. Local edits reverted.
+          // Writes /var/run/reboot-required when the running kernel is not the newest installed.
+          DPkg::Post-Invoke { "{{ unattended_upgrades_sentinel_script }} || true"; };
+      tags: [packages, config]
+
     # ── CONFIG ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
     # Written as a whole file rather than patched in place, for the reason node_baseline gives for
     # its own apt source: an idempotent full-file write with a managed-by header is reviewable and
@@ -246,21 +300,24 @@
           Effective apt config confirmed: kernel blacklisted, automatic reboot disabled.
       tags: [verify]
 
-    - name: Find the hooks that can create /var/run/reboot-required
-      # THE SENTINEL IS THE SINGLE POINT OF FAILURE FOR THE ENTIRE REBOOT HALF OF THIS DESIGN, and
-      # it is the one part that cannot be asserted from the repo — it depends on what
-      # update-notifier-common actually ships on this Debian release. Rather than hard-code a path
-      # that may not exist, discover the candidates and assert that at least one is present.
-      ansible.builtin.find:
-        paths:
-          - /etc/kernel/postinst.d
-          - /etc/apt/apt.conf.d
-        patterns:
-          - "*update-notifier*"
-          - "*unattended-upgrades*"
-          - "99update-notifier"
-        file_type: any
-      register: unattended_upgrades_sentinel_hooks
+    # THE SENTINEL IS THE SINGLE POINT OF FAILURE FOR THE ENTIRE REBOOT HALF OF THIS DESIGN.
+    # This was originally a `find` over /etc/kernel/postinst.d and /etc/apt/apt.conf.d, on the
+    # theory that the writer came from a package and the role could only discover whatever that
+    # package happened to ship. That theory was wrong: no such package exists on Debian (see
+    # defaults/main.yml), so the writer is now OURS and lives at two known paths. Checking two
+    # exact paths is strictly stronger than a glob -- a glob would have matched Debian's own
+    # unattended-upgrades apt conffile and passed while no sentinel writer existed at all.
+    - name: Stat the sentinel writer script
+      ansible.builtin.stat:
+        path: "{{ unattended_upgrades_sentinel_script }}"
+      register: unattended_upgrades_sentinel_script_stat
+      changed_when: false
+      tags: [verify]
+
+    - name: Stat the sentinel dpkg hook
+      ansible.builtin.stat:
+        path: "{{ unattended_upgrades_sentinel_hook }}"
+      register: unattended_upgrades_sentinel_hook_stat
       changed_when: false
       tags: [verify]
 
@@ -272,18 +329,21 @@
       # before, so it is an assert and not a debug message.
       ansible.builtin.assert:
         that:
-          - unattended_upgrades_sentinel_hooks.matched | int > 0
+          - unattended_upgrades_sentinel_script_stat.stat.exists
+          - unattended_upgrades_sentinel_script_stat.stat.executable | default(false)
+          - unattended_upgrades_sentinel_hook_stat.stat.exists
         fail_msg: >-
-          NOTHING ON {{ inventory_hostname }} CAN CREATE /var/run/reboot-required. No
-          update-notifier / unattended-upgrades hook was found under /etc/kernel/postinst.d or
-          /etc/apt/apt.conf.d. kured watches that path and reboots only when it exists, so with no
-          writer the reboot automation is permanently and INVISIBLY idle -- kured stays 1/1 Running
-          and reports kured_reboot_required=0 on every node forever. Confirm
-          update-notifier-common is installed (`dpkg -l update-notifier-common`) and inspect
-          `dpkg -L update-notifier-common | grep -E 'postinst.d|apt.conf.d'`.
+          NOTHING ON {{ inventory_hostname }} CAN CREATE /var/run/reboot-required.
+          {{ unattended_upgrades_sentinel_script }} (executable) and
+          {{ unattended_upgrades_sentinel_hook }} must both exist -- this role ships both, because
+          Debian provides no sentinel writer of its own (update-notifier-common is an UBUNTU
+          package and is not installable here). kured watches that path and reboots only when it
+          exists, so with no writer the reboot automation is permanently and INVISIBLY idle --
+          kured stays 1/1 Running and reports kured_reboot_required=0 on every node forever.
+          Re-run this role without `--tags verify` to install them.
         success_msg: >-
-          Reboot sentinel writer present ({{ unattended_upgrades_sentinel_hooks.matched }} hook(s)
-          found) -- a kernel or flagged package upgrade will signal kured.
+          Reboot sentinel writer present ({{ unattended_upgrades_sentinel_script }} + dpkg hook)
+          -- a kernel change will signal kured on the next apt transaction.
       tags: [verify]
 
     - name: Report the pending-reboot state of this node

renovate.json

@@ -1,99 +0,0 @@
-{
-  "$schema": "https://docs.renovatebot.com/renovate-schema.json",
-  "_comment": "Renovate config — Phase 4 automated updates (ADR-0009, R-UPD-01/02). AS OF 2026-10-17 RENOVATE OWNS BOTH HALVES: Helm chart/dependency bumps AND per-service container image tags. It opens PRs for everything; allowed low-risk classes auto-merge on green CI. The ADR-0009 split that gave image tags to Flux image-automation is formally closed — see .gitea/workflows/renovate.yaml for the three measured reasons (it pushes commits rather than opening PRs, so it bypasses the CLAUDE.md §1 gate; `main` is protected with user_can_push:false and the flux-system GitRepository has no secretRef, so it cannot write anyway; and enabling it would need an in-cluster git WRITE credential for the repo that defines the cluster). image-automation has been commented out at platform/kustomization.yaml:52 since it was authored and the cluster holds zero ImagePolicy/ImageRepository/ImageUpdateAutomation objects, so nothing is being torn down. CONSEQUENCE: the `docker` and `kubernetes` managers, previously disabled ONLY to avoid fighting that controller, are now ENABLED — without them every plain `image: repo/name:tag` line in this repo was maintained by nothing at all, which is how the oauth2-proxy auth sidecars reached 7 minors behind the oauth2-proxy running in the same cluster. RUNNER: .gitea/workflows/renovate.yaml (scheduled daily); platform/endpoint are set there, not here.",
-  "extends": [
-    "config:recommended",
-    ":dependencyDashboard",
-    ":semanticCommits",
-    "helpers:pinGitHubActionDigests"
-  ],
-  "timezone": "America/New_York",
-  "schedule": ["after 3am and before 6am"],
-  "prConcurrentLimit": 5,
-  "prHourlyLimit": 2,
-  "commitMessagePrefix": "chore(deps):",
-  "labels": ["dependencies", "automated-update"],
-  "ignoreUnstable": true,
-  "respectLatest": true,
-  "enabledManagers": ["flux", "kustomize", "helmv3", "kubernetes", "regex", "github-actions"],
-  "flux": {
-    "managerFilePatterns": ["/(^|/)platform/.+\\.ya?ml$/", "/(^|/)apps/.+\\.ya?ml$/"]
-  },
-  "kustomize": {
-    "managerFilePatterns": ["/(^|/)kustomization\\.ya?ml$/"]
-  },
-  "_kubernetes_comment": "ADDED 2026-10-17. The `kubernetes` manager reads plain `image:` fields out of Kubernetes manifests, and it is NOT auto-detected — it only looks at files matched here, which is why this block is as broad as it is. Scope covers every place this repo writes a container image: platform components, the rendered app waves, the ServiceDefinition catalog that generates them, the runbooks web server and the pm-agent job template. `catalog/` matters as much as `apps/`: apps/wave-*/*.yaml are GENERATED by catalog/render.py, so a bump applied only to the rendered output is reverted by the next render and would also fail ci/render-golden.sh. Renovate will raise BOTH, and both must land together.",
-  "kubernetes": {
-    "managerFilePatterns": [
-      "/(^|/)platform/.+\\.ya?ml$/",
-      "/(^|/)platform-config/.+\\.ya?ml$/",
-      "/(^|/)apps/.+\\.ya?ml$/",
-      "/(^|/)catalog/.+\\.ya?ml$/",
-      "/(^|/)runbooks/serving/.+\\.ya?ml$/",
-      "/(^|/)infra/agent/.+\\.ya?ml$/"
-    ]
-  },
-  "customManagers": [
-    {
-      "customType": "regex",
-      "description": "Inline `# renovate: datasource=... depName=...` markers on pinned URLs / version literals (e.g. platform/kubevirt/kustomization.yaml release URLs, ci/versions.env, infra/devcontainer/versions.env).",
-      "managerFilePatterns": [
-        "/(^|/)kustomization\\.ya?ml$/",
-        "/(^|/)versions\\.env$/"
-      ],
-      "matchStrings": [
-        "#\\s*renovate:\\s*datasource=(?<datasource>\\S+)\\s+depName=(?<depName>\\S+)(?:\\s+versioning=(?<versioning>\\S+))?\\s*\\n.*?(?<currentValue>v?[0-9]+\\.[0-9]+\\.[0-9]+)"
-      ],
-      "versioningTemplate": "{{#if versioning}}{{{versioning}}}{{else}}semver{{/if}}"
-    }
-  ],
-  "packageRules": [
-    {
-      "description": "Auto-merge the allowed low-risk classes on green CI — no human authoring (R-UPD-02). The Gitea merge gate (make -C ci gate) is the required check.",
-      "matchUpdateTypes": ["minor", "patch", "digest"],
-      "automerge": true,
-      "automergeType": "pr",
-      "platformAutomerge": true
-    },
-    {
-      "description": "MAJOR / potentially-breaking bumps require human review (docs/11 safety rail). Never auto-merged.",
-      "matchUpdateTypes": ["major"],
-      "automerge": false,
-      "addLabels": ["needs-review", "breaking"]
-    },
-    {
-      "description": "Keep the KubeVirt + CDI operator pair on a compatible track — grouped so they bump together (platform/kubevirt/kustomization.yaml).",
-      "matchDepNames": ["kubevirt/kubevirt", "kubevirt/containerized-data-importer"],
-      "groupName": "kubevirt-cdi"
-    },
-    {
-      "description": "Pinned tool versions (ci/versions.env, infra/devcontainer/versions.env) are a deliberate change surface — label but do not auto-merge; a version bump there changes CI reproducibility.",
-      "matchFileNames": ["ci/versions.env", "infra/devcontainer/versions.env"],
-      "automerge": false,
-      "addLabels": ["ci-tooling"]
-    },
-    {
-      "description": "ADDED 2026-10-17. NEVER AUTO-MERGE THE BLAST-RADIUS COMPONENTS, not even a patch. The default rule above auto-merges minor/patch/digest on a green gate, which is right for an app image: a bad Sonarr bump inconveniences one pod. It is wrong for these five, because the gate is a STATIC check — it renders manifests and lints them, it does not boot a node, drain a volume or form an etcd quorum (vars.CLUSTER_AVAILABLE is unset, so L2/L3 conformance does not run in CI at all). So for anything whose failure mode is the CLUSTER rather than a service, a green gate is not evidence and a human must read the changelog. kured is here because it reboots control-plane nodes; longhorn because a storage-engine bump migrates live volume data; cilium because it is the CNI and a bad bump is a total partition (and its version is DUAL-PINNED in infra/ansible/roles/cilium/defaults/main.yml, which Renovate does not see, so the two would silently desync); cloudnative-pg because it drives Postgres switchovers; kube-prometheus-stack because ci/versions.env asserts an exact promtool/Prometheus lockstep and a chart bump that moves Prometheus fails the gate until that file moves with it.",
-      "matchPackageNames": [
-        "kured",
-        "longhorn",
-        "cilium",
-        "cloudnative-pg",
-        "kube-prometheus-stack"
-      ],
-      "automerge": false,
-      "addLabels": ["needs-review", "blast-radius"]
-    }
-  ],
-  "_unmanageable_comment": "WHAT RENOVATE STILL CANNOT FIX, so nobody mistakes a working bot for full coverage. A FLOATING tag has no version to compare, so Renovate skips it silently — it does not pin it and does not warn. As of 2026-10-17 that is: plexinc/pms-docker:latest, lscr.io/linuxserver/jackett:latest, pihole/pihole (NO TAG AT ALL), quay.io/keycloak/keycloak (no tag), nextcloud:31-apache and docker:27-dind. Those must be pinned BY HAND to a concrete version before any automation can maintain them, and until then they drift on every pull with nothing recording what is running. Separately, the HelmRelease minor-locking ranges (9 of 12, e.g. `>=88.0.0 <89.0.0` on kube-prometheus-stack) cap Renovate at patches inside a line it has been told not to leave; raising those ceilings is deliberate per-component work and is NOT part of enabling the bot. Both lists are in decisions/2026-10-17-automated-upgrades.md.",
-  "ignorePaths": [
-    "**/*.example",
-    "**/*.sops.yaml",
-    "conformance/**",
-    "platform/image-automation/per-service/**",
-    "platform/kyverno/tests/**"
-  ],
-  "_ignorePaths_comment": "platform/kyverno/tests/** ADDED 2026-10-17: those Kyverno policy fixtures pin `alpine:latest` and a `conformance-runner:latest`, which are test inputs whose whole point is to be a fixed shape, not software to keep current. `conformance/**` was already ignored for the same reason; this closes the matching hole that enabling the `kubernetes` manager would otherwise have opened.",
-  "_docker_comment": "The `docker` manager (Dockerfiles, docker-compose) and the `kubernetes` manager above were BOTH previously `enabled: false`, solely so Renovate would not fight Flux image-automation over a running tag. That controller was never enabled and never will be here (see _comment), so the only thing those two flags were achieving was leaving every plain `image:` tag in the repo unmanaged. `docker` is left out of enabledManagers because this repo contains no Dockerfile that ships to the cluster; `kubernetes` is now ON and is the one that matters.",
-  "docker": { "enabled": true }
-}

renovate.json5

@@ -0,0 +1,187 @@
+// =================================================================================================
+// Renovate configuration — JSON5, so the rationale can live NEXT TO what it explains.
+// =================================================================================================
+// THIS FILE WAS `renovate.json` AND IT WAS INVALID. It carried five `_comment` / `_*_comment`
+// pseudo-comment keys, because JSON has no comments. Renovate REJECTS unknown top-level options, so
+// the whole config failed validation and the first manual run of the workflow ERRORED OUT. Proven
+// with the official validator (`ghcr.io/renovatebot/renovate renovate-config-validator`):
+//
+//   ERROR: Found errors in configuration
+//     Invalid configuration option: _comment
+//     Invalid configuration option: _docker_comment
+//     Invalid configuration option: _ignorePaths_comment
+//     Invalid configuration option: _kubernetes_comment
+//     Invalid configuration option: _unmanageable_comment
+//
+// Renovate discovers `renovate.json5` natively (no RENOVATE_CONFIG_FILE needed, and nothing in
+// .gitea/ or ci/ pins the old filename — only prose in comments), and JSON5 permits real `//`
+// comments. So the fix keeps every word of the original rationale, positioned, instead of
+// flattening it into a `description` string.
+//
+// VALIDATE BEFORE COMMITTING — it is one command and it is the only thing that catches this class:
+//   podman run --rm -v "$PWD/renovate.json5:/tmp/renovate.json5:ro,Z" \
+//     ghcr.io/renovatebot/renovate renovate-config-validator /tmp/renovate.json5
+//
+// NOTE on what was NOT wrong: `enabledManagers` containing bare `regex` was suspected of needing to
+// be `custom.regex`. The validator accepts `regex`, so that suspicion was unfounded and nothing
+// here changes it.
+{  "$schema": "https://docs.renovatebot.com/renovate-schema.json",
+  // Renovate config — Phase 4 automated updates (ADR-0009, R-UPD-01/02). AS OF 2026-10-17
+  // RENOVATE OWNS BOTH HALVES: Helm chart/dependency bumps AND per-service container image tags.
+  // It opens PRs for everything; allowed low-risk classes auto-merge on green CI. The ADR-0009
+  // split that gave image tags to Flux image-automation is formally closed — see
+  // .gitea/workflows/renovate.yaml for the three measured reasons (it pushes commits rather than
+  // opening PRs, so it bypasses the CLAUDE.md §1 gate; `main` is protected with
+  // user_can_push:false and the flux-system GitRepository has no secretRef, so it cannot write
+  // anyway; and enabling it would need an in-cluster git WRITE credential for the repo that
+  // defines the cluster). image-automation has been commented out at
+  // platform/kustomization.yaml:52 since it was authored and the cluster holds zero
+  // ImagePolicy/ImageRepository/ImageUpdateAutomation objects, so nothing is being torn down.
+  // CONSEQUENCE: the `docker` and `kubernetes` managers, previously disabled ONLY to avoid
+  // fighting that controller, are now ENABLED — without them every plain `image: repo/name:tag`
+  // line in this repo was maintained by nothing at all, which is how the oauth2-proxy auth
+  // sidecars reached 7 minors behind the oauth2-proxy running in the same cluster. RUNNER:
+  // .gitea/workflows/renovate.yaml (scheduled daily); platform/endpoint are set there, not here.
+  "extends": ["config:recommended", ":dependencyDashboard", ":semanticCommits", "helpers:pinGitHubActionDigests"],
+  "timezone": "America/New_York",
+  "schedule": ["after 3am and before 6am"],
+  "prConcurrentLimit": 5,
+  "prHourlyLimit": 2,
+  "commitMessagePrefix": "chore(deps):",
+  "labels": ["dependencies", "automated-update"],
+  "ignoreUnstable": true,
+  "respectLatest": true,
+  "enabledManagers": ["flux", "kustomize", "helmv3", "kubernetes", "regex", "github-actions"],
+  "flux": {
+    "managerFilePatterns": [
+      "/(^|/)platform/.+\\.ya?ml$/",
+      "/(^|/)apps/.+\\.ya?ml$/"
+    ]
+  },
+  "kustomize": {
+    "managerFilePatterns": [
+      "/(^|/)kustomization\\.ya?ml$/"
+    ]
+  },
+  // ADDED 2026-10-17. The `kubernetes` manager reads plain `image:` fields out of Kubernetes
+  // manifests, and it is NOT auto-detected — it only looks at files matched here, which is why
+  // this block is as broad as it is. Scope covers every place this repo writes a container image:
+  // platform components, the rendered app waves, the ServiceDefinition catalog that generates
+  // them, the runbooks web server and the pm-agent job template. `catalog/` matters as much as
+  // `apps/`: apps/wave-*/*.yaml are GENERATED by catalog/render.py, so a bump applied only to the
+  // rendered output is reverted by the next render and would also fail ci/render-golden.sh.
+  // Renovate will raise BOTH, and both must land together.
+  "kubernetes": {
+    "managerFilePatterns": [
+      "/(^|/)platform/.+\\.ya?ml$/",
+      "/(^|/)platform-config/.+\\.ya?ml$/",
+      "/(^|/)apps/.+\\.ya?ml$/",
+      "/(^|/)catalog/.+\\.ya?ml$/",
+      "/(^|/)runbooks/serving/.+\\.ya?ml$/",
+      "/(^|/)infra/agent/.+\\.ya?ml$/"
+    ]
+  },
+  "customManagers": [
+    {
+      "customType": "regex",
+      "description": "Inline `# renovate: datasource=... depName=...` markers on pinned URLs / version literals (e.g. platform/kubevirt/kustomization.yaml release URLs, ci/versions.env, infra/devcontainer/versions.env).",
+      "managerFilePatterns": [
+        "/(^|/)kustomization\\.ya?ml$/",
+        "/(^|/)versions\\.env$/"
+      ],
+      "matchStrings": [
+        "#\\s*renovate:\\s*datasource=(?<datasource>\\S+)\\s+depName=(?<depName>\\S+)(?:\\s+versioning=(?<versioning>\\S+))?\\s*\\n.*?(?<currentValue>v?[0-9]+\\.[0-9]+\\.[0-9]+)"
+      ],
+      "versioningTemplate": "{{#if versioning}}{{{versioning}}}{{else}}semver{{/if}}"
+    }
+  ],
+  "packageRules": [
+    {
+      "description": "Auto-merge the allowed low-risk classes on green CI \u2014 no human authoring (R-UPD-02). The Gitea merge gate (make -C ci gate) is the required check.",
+      "matchUpdateTypes": [
+        "minor",
+        "patch",
+        "digest"
+      ],
+      "automerge": true,
+      "automergeType": "pr",
+      "platformAutomerge": true
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "MAJOR / potentially-breaking bumps require human review (docs/11 safety rail). Never auto-merged.",
+      "matchUpdateTypes": [
+        "major"
+      ],
+      "automerge": false,
+      "addLabels": [
+        "needs-review",
+        "breaking"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Keep the KubeVirt + CDI operator pair on a compatible track \u2014 grouped so they bump together (platform/kubevirt/kustomization.yaml).",
+      "matchDepNames": [
+        "kubevirt/kubevirt",
+        "kubevirt/containerized-data-importer"
+      ],
+      "groupName": "kubevirt-cdi"
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "Pinned tool versions (ci/versions.env, infra/devcontainer/versions.env) are a deliberate change surface \u2014 label but do not auto-merge; a version bump there changes CI reproducibility.",
+      "matchFileNames": [
+        "ci/versions.env",
+        "infra/devcontainer/versions.env"
+      ],
+      "automerge": false,
+      "addLabels": [
+        "ci-tooling"
+      ]
+    },
+    {
+      "description": "ADDED 2026-10-17. NEVER AUTO-MERGE THE BLAST-RADIUS COMPONENTS, not even a patch. The default rule above auto-merges minor/patch/digest on a green gate, which is right for an app image: a bad Sonarr bump inconveniences one pod. It is wrong for these five, because the gate is a STATIC check \u2014 it renders manifests and lints them, it does not boot a node, drain a volume or form an etcd quorum (vars.CLUSTER_AVAILABLE is unset, so L2/L3 conformance does not run in CI at all). So for anything whose failure mode is the CLUSTER rather than a service, a green gate is not evidence and a human must read the changelog. kured is here because it reboots control-plane nodes; longhorn because a storage-engine bump migrates live volume data; cilium because it is the CNI and a bad bump is a total partition (and its version is DUAL-PINNED in infra/ansible/roles/cilium/defaults/main.yml, which Renovate does not see, so the two would silently desync); cloudnative-pg because it drives Postgres switchovers; kube-prometheus-stack because ci/versions.env asserts an exact promtool/Prometheus lockstep and a chart bump that moves Prometheus fails the gate until that file moves with it.",
+      "matchPackageNames": [
+        "kured",
+        "longhorn",
+        "cilium",
+        "cloudnative-pg",
+        "kube-prometheus-stack"
+      ],
+      "automerge": false,
+      "addLabels": [
+        "needs-review",
+        "blast-radius"
+      ]
+    }
+  ],
+  // WHAT RENOVATE STILL CANNOT FIX, so nobody mistakes a working bot for full coverage. A
+  // FLOATING tag has no version to compare, so Renovate skips it silently — it does not pin it
+  // and does not warn. As of 2026-10-17 that is: plexinc/pms-docker:latest,
+  // lscr.io/linuxserver/jackett:latest, pihole/pihole (NO TAG AT ALL), quay.io/keycloak/keycloak
+  // (no tag), nextcloud:31-apache and docker:27-dind. Those must be pinned BY HAND to a concrete
+  // version before any automation can maintain them, and until then they drift on every pull with
+  // nothing recording what is running. Separately, the HelmRelease minor-locking ranges (9 of 12,
+  // e.g. `>=88.0.0 <89.0.0` on kube-prometheus-stack) cap Renovate at patches inside a line it
+  // has been told not to leave; raising those ceilings is deliberate per-component work and is
+  // NOT part of enabling the bot. Both lists are in decisions/2026-10-17-automated-upgrades.md.
+  // platform/kyverno/tests/** ADDED 2026-10-17: those Kyverno policy fixtures pin `alpine:latest`
+  // and a `conformance-runner:latest`, which are test inputs whose whole point is to be a fixed
+  // shape, not software to keep current. `conformance/**` was already ignored for the same
+  // reason; this closes the matching hole that enabling the `kubernetes` manager would otherwise
+  // have opened.
+  "ignorePaths": [
+    "**/*.example",
+    "**/*.sops.yaml",
+    "conformance/**",
+    "platform/image-automation/per-service/**",
+    "platform/kyverno/tests/**"
+  ],
+  // The `docker` manager (Dockerfiles, docker-compose) and the `kubernetes` manager above were
+  // BOTH previously `enabled: false`, solely so Renovate would not fight Flux image-automation
+  // over a running tag. That controller was never enabled and never will be here (see _comment),
+  // so the only thing those two flags were achieving was leaving every plain `image:` tag in the
+  // repo unmanaged. `docker` is left out of enabledManagers because this repo contains no
+  // Dockerfile that ships to the cluster; `kubernetes` is now ON and is the one that matters.
+  "docker": {
+    "enabled": true
+  }
+}