fix(obs): the deploy notification was inhibited before it could send

FluxRolloutInProgress fired correctly on the first real deploy and its mail
was suppressed before Alertmanager dispatched it. One label was wrong.

kube-prometheus-stack ships general.rules -> InfoInhibitor:

  group by (namespace) (ALERTS{severity="info"} == 1)
    unless on (namespace) group by (namespace)
      (ALERTS{alertname!="InfoInhibitor", alertstate="firing",
              severity=~"warning|critical"} == 1)

which fires for any namespace holding a firing info alert AND NOTHING ELSE
wrong in it, and the chart's third inhibit_rule (source alertname=InfoInhibitor
-> target severity="info", equal [namespace]) then drops exactly that alert.

For a deploy notification that is the worst possible interaction, because the
suppressed case is the ONLY case that matters: on a healthy rollout of a healthy
cluster flux-system holds no warning or critical alert, so the notification is
inhibited precisely when it is wanted, and would arrive only when something else
in flux-system was already broken. Measured on prod: InfoInhibitor went active
2026-09-30T04:58:48Z, the same moment the alert began firing for 12
Kustomizations, and amtool showed no FluxRolloutInProgress in Alertmanager
either active or --inhibited, with zero send failures.

Upstream's intent is explicit and fair: severity "info" means "only worth
showing next to a real problem". A deploy notice is not that, so it must not
claim that severity. FluxRolloutInProgress now carries `notification: deploy`
and no severity at all, and the route matches on that label — no inhibit_rule
in the chart targets anything but severity values, and omitting severity also
stops InfoInhibitor firing for flux-system rather than merely working around it.
FluxRolloutStuck keeps severity: warning and is unaffected.

Also verified on prod in the process, all previously UNVERIFIED: the 33 metric
series exist exactly as designed, the `revision` label IS populated (so the
lastAppliedRevision/artifact.revision paths are right), the podAnnotations roll
forced a new KSM pod, and the rule both fired for 12 lagging Kustomizations and
then CLEARED on convergence — the completion signal's whole mechanism, on real
data. Routing proven by `amtool config routes test notification=deploy` ->
email-deploy.

Still unverified: no mail observed in the inbox. The 226->227 email counter
increment during the window cannot be attributed (no receiver label, other
alerts active), and I am not claiming it either way. See the handoff entry.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 (1M context) <[email protected]>

.gitea/workflows/gate.yml

@@ -131,6 +131,10 @@ jobs:
           # merging. Green here means the token resolved and the live Gitea matched the
           # declaration in infra/gitea/expected-branch-protection.json.
           REQUIRE_GITEA_SETTINGS: "true"
+          # ci/approval-policy.sh needs to know WHICH PR it is looking at, so it can read that
+          # PR's changed files and its reviews. Absent on a push event, where the stage is N/A.
+          GITHUB_EVENT_NAME: ${{ github.event_name }}
+          PR_NUMBER: ${{ github.event.pull_request.number }}
         run: ./ci/gate.sh || [ "$?" -eq 3 ]
 
       # NOTE: no actions/upload-artifact step. Gitea Actions rejects upload-artifact@v4

CLAUDE.md

@@ -14,7 +14,28 @@ There is no other path. Specifically:
 
 - **Do not `git push origin main`.**
 - **Do not `git push origin HEAD:main`.** Same thing wearing a hat.
-- **Do not merge your own PR.** A human approves and clicks merge.
+- **Do not merge your own PR.** See the approval model below — and either way, the merge is
+  someone else's action, never yours.
+
+### Who approves
+
+**The CI/CD pipeline is the approver.** A green gate is sufficient for an ordinary change; the
+branch requires no human approval for one. That is a deliberate transfer of authority, on the
+operator's stated principle: *if the pipeline is not good enough to be trusted for this, it is not
+good enough to do its job and needs improving* — so a weak gate is a bug to fix, not a reason to
+add a human.
+
+**One exception, enforced by `ci/approval-policy.sh`:** a change to the pipeline itself, the
+admission policies, the Flux wiring, the SOPS recipients, the RBAC, or this file needs an
+approving review from someone who is not its author. The reason is narrow and structural — **a
+change to the gate cannot be gated by the gate.** A PR that weakens a check would be approved by
+the weakened check. Everything else merges on green.
+
+The path list is data, with a reason per entry: `infra/gitea/approval-policy.json`. It is itself a
+sensitive path, so the policy cannot be widened or narrowed without a human.
+
+That stage is **fail-closed** — if it cannot evaluate, it blocks. Unlike `gitea-settings`, where a
+missing credential is a lock-out, here a skip would be a bypass.
 - **Do not `kubectl apply` / `edit` / `patch` a durable change.** Flux reconciles `main`;
   anything applied by hand is drift that the next reconcile reverts or, worse, adopts.
 

ci/Makefile

@@ -35,6 +35,9 @@ decisions-log: ## handoff log: DECISIONS-LOG.md frozen, decisions/ entries well-
 l1: ## L1 rendering checks (no cluster; live now)
 	@"$(CI_DIR)l1.sh"
 
+approval-policy: ## CI is the approver; sensitive paths still need a human (needs PR_NUMBER + token)
+	@./approval-policy.sh
+
 gitea-settings: ## Gitea branch protection + runners match infra/gitea/expected-branch-protection.json (SKIPS w/o GITEA_SETTINGS_TOKEN)
 	@./gitea-settings.sh
 

ci/approval-policy.sh

@@ -0,0 +1,117 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env bash
+# ci/approval-policy.sh — the CI/CD pipeline is the approver, EXCEPT for changes that alter
+# what the pipeline verifies or the security posture it rests on.
+#
+# THE POLICY, and why it is shaped this way.
+#
+# Operator intent (2026-09-29): "CI/CD pipeline is the end-all-be-all for approval. If the CI
+# pipeline is not good enough to be trusted for this, then it is not good enough to do its
+# intended job and needs to be improved. Manual approvers should only be for architecturally or
+# security relevant changes -- which is essentially the CI pipeline itself and kyverno policies."
+#
+# So `required_approvals` on the branch drops to 0 and the GATE decides. That is a real transfer
+# of authority, and it has exactly one hole: **a change to the gate cannot be gated by the gate.**
+# A PR that weakens a check would be approved by the weakened check. The same applies to the
+# admission policies, the Flux wiring that decides what reconciles, the SOPS recipients, and the
+# RBAC. Those are the "architecturally or security relevant" set, and this stage is what still
+# requires a human for them.
+#
+# The list is data, not code: infra/gitea/approval-policy.json, with a stated reason per entry so
+# it stays reviewable. Changing that list is itself a sensitive change (infra/gitea/**), so the
+# policy cannot be widened without a human.
+#
+# FAIL-CLOSED, DELIBERATELY DIFFERENT FROM gitea-settings.sh. That stage skips when its token is
+# missing, because an unwired credential blocking every PR is a lock-out. Here the reverse is
+# true: if this cannot evaluate, an unreviewed change to the gate itself could merge. A skip is a
+# BYPASS, not a gap. So: cannot determine -> BLOCK.
+#
+# EXIT CODES
+#   0  no sensitive paths touched (gate alone is sufficient), OR sensitive paths touched and a
+#      non-author APPROVED review is present
+#   1  sensitive paths touched without such a review, OR the policy could not be evaluated
+set -euo pipefail
+CI_DIR="$(cd "$(dirname "${BASH_SOURCE[0]}")" && pwd)"
+REPO_ROOT="$(cd "${CI_DIR}/.." && pwd)"
+# shellcheck disable=SC1091
+source "${CI_DIR}/lib.sh"
+
+log "Stage: approval policy (CI approves; humans approve changes to CI)"
+
+DECL="${REPO_ROOT}/infra/gitea/approval-policy.json"
+[ -f "$DECL" ] || die "approval policy declaration missing: ${DECL}"
+require_tool jq
+require_tool python3
+
+# Not a PR -> nothing to gate. A push to main is already merged, and direct pushes are refused
+# by branch protection, so this is genuinely not-applicable rather than a skipped check.
+EVENT="${GITHUB_EVENT_NAME:-${EVENT_NAME:-}}"
+PR="${PR_NUMBER:-}"
+if [ "$EVENT" != "pull_request" ] || [ -z "$PR" ] || [ "$PR" = "null" ]; then
+  ok "not a pull_request event (event='${EVENT:-none}') — approval policy N/A"
+  exit 0
+fi
+
+GITEA_URL="${GITEA_URL:-https://gitea.home.keithjackson.dev}"
+GITEA_REPO="${GITEA_REPO:-Home-Network/home-network-k3s-impl}"
+TOKEN="${SETTINGS_API_TOKEN:-${GITEA_SETTINGS_TOKEN:-}}"
+if [ -z "$TOKEN" ]; then
+  err "no SETTINGS_API_TOKEN — cannot read this PR's changed files or its reviews."
+  err "  BLOCKING. A skip here would let an unreviewed change to the gate itself merge."
+  summary "- approval-policy: **BLOCKED — cannot evaluate** (no token; a skip here is a bypass)"
+  exit 1
+fi
+api() { curl -sS --max-time 20 -H "Authorization: token ${TOKEN}" "$@"; }
+
+FILES_JSON="$(api "${GITEA_URL}/api/v1/repos/${GITEA_REPO}/pulls/${PR}/files?limit=1000" || true)"
+PR_JSON="$(api "${GITEA_URL}/api/v1/repos/${GITEA_REPO}/pulls/${PR}" || true)"
+REVIEWS_JSON="$(api "${GITEA_URL}/api/v1/repos/${GITEA_REPO}/pulls/${PR}/reviews" || true)"
+for v in FILES_JSON PR_JSON REVIEWS_JSON; do
+  jq -e . >/dev/null 2>&1 <<<"${!v}" || {
+    err "could not read ${v} from Gitea for PR #${PR} — BLOCKING rather than assuming."
+    summary "- approval-policy: **BLOCKED — Gitea unreadable**"
+    exit 1; }
+done
+
+AUTHOR="$(jq -r '.user.login // empty' <<<"$PR_JSON")"
+[ -n "$AUTHOR" ] || { err "could not determine PR author — BLOCKING"; exit 1; }
+
+# NOTE: the PR file list goes in via an ENV VAR, not a second stdin redirect. `python3 - <<EOF`
+# already consumes stdin for the script; adding `<<<"$json"` silently wins and the script body is
+# never read. Caught before shipping, by running it.
+SENSITIVE="$(FILES_JSON="$FILES_JSON" DECL="$DECL" python3 -c '
+import json, os, fnmatch
+decl = json.load(open(os.environ["DECL"]))
+files = [f.get("filename", "") for f in json.loads(os.environ["FILES_JSON"])]
+pats = decl["sensitive_paths"]
+hits = sorted({f for f in files for p in pats
+               if fnmatch.fnmatch(f, p) or (p.endswith("/**") and f.startswith(p[:-2]))})
+print("\n".join(hits))
+')"
+
+if [ -z "$SENSITIVE" ]; then
+  ok "no architecturally/security-relevant paths touched — the GATE is the approver."
+  summary "- approval-policy: **green** (CI approves; no sensitive paths touched)"
+  exit 0
+fi
+
+echo "  sensitive paths touched:" >&2
+printf '    %s\n' $SENSITIVE >&2
+
+APPROVER="$(jq -r --arg a "$AUTHOR" \
+  '[.[] | select(.state == "APPROVED") | select(.user.login != $a) | .user.login] | first // empty' \
+  <<<"$REVIEWS_JSON")"
+
+if [ -n "$APPROVER" ]; then
+  ok "approved by '${APPROVER}' (author '${AUTHOR}') — sensitive change is human-reviewed."
+  summary "- approval-policy: **green** (sensitive paths approved by \`${APPROVER}\`)"
+  exit 0
+fi
+
+err "This PR changes the pipeline or the security posture it rests on, and has NO approving"
+err "  review from anyone other than its author ('${AUTHOR}')."
+err "  A change to the gate cannot be gated by the gate — that is the one thing CI cannot"
+err "  honestly approve for itself. Get a human review, or move the change out of:"
+printf '    %s\n' $SENSITIVE >&2
+err "  The list lives in infra/gitea/approval-policy.json, with a reason per entry."
+summary "- approval-policy: **BLOCKED — sensitive paths need a non-author approval**"
+exit 1

ci/gate.sh

@@ -113,6 +113,7 @@ run_stage lint          "${CI_DIR}/lint.sh"
 run_stage l0            "${CI_DIR}/l0.sh"
 run_stage render-golden "${CI_DIR}/render-golden.sh"
 run_stage l1            "${CI_DIR}/l1.sh"
+run_stage approval-policy "${CI_DIR}/approval-policy.sh"
 run_stage gitea-settings "${CI_DIR}/gitea-settings.sh"
 run_stage conformance   "${CI_DIR}/conformance.sh"
 
@@ -190,6 +191,20 @@ case "${OUTCOME[spec-immutability]}" in
   pass) ok   "spec-immutability: green" ;;
 esac
 
+# approval-policy: the branch requires NO human approvals (required_approvals: 0) -- the GATE
+# is the approver, per operator intent. This stage is the single exception: a change to the
+# pipeline itself, the admission policies, the Flux wiring, the SOPS recipients or the RBAC
+# cannot honestly be approved BY the thing it changes, so those paths still need a human.
+#
+# It never SKIPS -- it exits 0 or 1 only, and blocks when it cannot evaluate. That is the
+# opposite of gitea-settings' tolerance and it is deliberate: there, a missing credential is a
+# lock-out; here, a missing credential would let an unreviewed change to the gate merge.
+case "${OUTCOME[approval-policy]}" in
+  fail) err "approval-policy: a sensitive change lacks a non-author approval -> blocks merge"; BLOCK=1 ;;
+  skip) err "approval-policy: did not run -- it is fail-closed by design, so treat as a block"; BLOCK=1 ;;
+  pass) ok  "approval-policy: green" ;;
+esac
+
 # gitea-settings: the ONLY check that can see Gitea's own database (branch protection +
 # runner registration). A FAIL is real drift and always blocks -- that is the whole point.
 # A SKIP means no token or unreachable Gitea, which is an UNWIRED CREDENTIAL, not a defect

conformance/tests/l0-static/alert-metrics-have-scrape-targets/check.sh

@@ -237,6 +237,31 @@ SCRAPE_OWNERS: list[dict] = [
                "backed up (VeleroScheduleNeverBackedUp / SchedulePaused / NoVolumeDataBackup); "
                "Velero itself publishes nothing until a backup is attempted",
     },
+    {
+        "owner": "kube-prometheus-stack: kube-state-metrics custom-resource-state for Flux revisions",
+        "prefixes": ("kube_flux_",),
+        "file": KPS,
+        "require": [
+            r"customResourceState:\s*\n\s*enabled:\s*true",
+            r"metricNamePrefix:\s*kube_flux_kustomization",
+            r"metricNamePrefix:\s*kube_flux_gitrepository",
+            # The RBAC is MANDATORY, not cosmetic — the same measured failure mode as velero.io
+            # above: without read access to these two API groups KSM publishes the
+            # custom-resource-state metrics as an EMPTY SET and logs a forbidden error, which would
+            # leave FluxRolloutInProgress/FluxRolloutStuck inert while looking configured.
+            r'apiGroups:\s*\["kustomize\.toolkit\.fluxcd\.io"\]',
+            r'apiGroups:\s*\["source\.toolkit\.fluxcd\.io"\]',
+            # A config-only edit does not restart KSM (the chart sets no checksum annotation over
+            # the ConfigMap), so the pod annotation that forces the roll is part of the claim: drop
+            # it and a future change to the flux collector set ships green and never takes effect.
+            r"homelab\.keithjackson\.dev/crs-config-rollout",
+        ],
+        "forbid": [r"customResourceState:\s*\n\s*enabled:\s*false"],
+        "why": "kube_flux_* is the ONLY revision-carrying signal in the TSDB — gotk_* has no "
+               "revision label anywhere (measured 2026-09-29) and the Flux event stream emits "
+               "ReconciliationSucceeded on every interval tick whether or not anything changed, so "
+               "without these metrics nothing can tell a deploy starting from an idle cluster",
+    },
     {
         "owner": "kube-prometheus-stack: bundled kube-state-metrics",
         "prefixes": ("kube_",),

decisions/2026-09-29-flux-deploy-notifications.md

@@ -0,0 +1,144 @@
+---
+date: 2026-09-29
+branch: feat/flux-deploy-notifications
+title: Flux deploy notifications — the operator now gets mail when a git change starts rolling out and when it completes
+---
+
+## What changed
+
+The operator was getting **no notification when Flux began applying a git change, and none when it
+finished**. Root cause, measured rather than inferred: `notification-controller` v1.4.0 is running
+(`1/1` ready) and the `Provider`/`Alert`/`Receiver` CRDs are installed and serving `v1beta3`, but
+there are **zero `Provider` and zero `Alert` objects in the entire cluster** (`kubectl get
+providers,alerts -A` → `No resources found`). Nothing in git ever created any. The five `gotk_*`
+rules in `platform/monitoring/alerts.yaml` only cover *failures* (`FluxReconciliationFailure`,
+`FluxResourceSuspended`) — nothing covered the healthy path.
+
+**The obvious fix does not work, and this is the substance of the change.** Neither Flux event can be
+filtered into a deploy signal:
+
+- `ReconciliationSucceeded` is a **heartbeat, not a change signal**. 16 Kustomizations, 15 on
+  `interval: 10m` → **101 such events in one hour**, with the message `Reconciliation finished in
+  324.161192ms, next run in 10m0s` — byte-identical in shape whether the apply changed anything or
+  not. An `Alert` at `eventSeverity: info` would have mailed ~100 times an hour.
+- `Progressing` is worse. Five Kustomizations re-apply the same object on **every** tick — event
+  counts **2505 / 2504 / 2501 / 2495 / 2490** (`apps-vms` → `NetworkPolicy/unifi/default-deny`,
+  `platform` → `CustomResourceDefinition/cdis.cdi.kubevirt.io`, `apps-wave-0/1/2` →
+  `NetworkPolicy/{gitea,nextcloud,seerr}/default-deny`). Anything keyed on `Progressing` would mail
+  five times every ten minutes, forever.
+- `gotk_*` carries **no revision label anywhere** — `gotk_reconcile_condition` 120 series,
+  `gotk_suspend_status` 40, not one with a revision.
+
+The applied **revision** is the only signal that moves when and only when git moves, and it lives in
+object status alone. So:
+
+1. **`platform/monitoring/kube-prometheus-stack.yaml`** — two resources added to the *existing*
+   `kube-state-metrics.customResourceState` config (the Velero-Schedule path, already enabled):
+   `kube_flux_kustomization_info{revision}` + `kube_flux_kustomization_suspended` (from
+   `status.lastAppliedRevision` / `spec.suspend`) and `kube_flux_gitrepository_info{revision}` (from
+   `status.artifact.revision`). Plus the two mandatory read-only `rbac.extraRules` entries, and a
+   `podAnnotations` roll-counter — the chart sets **no checksum annotation** over that ConfigMap, so
+   a config-only edit would have left KSM running the old collector set with the new metrics absent
+   and the new alerts silently inert. Named `kube_flux_*`, never `gotk_*`, for the same reason
+   `kube_velero_schedule_*` is not `velero_*`: these are KSM series about Kubernetes objects.
+   Cost: 33 series.
+2. **`platform/monitoring/alerts.yaml`**, group `platform-health.flux` — `FluxRolloutInProgress`
+   (`severity: info`, **no `for:`**) fires the moment any non-suspended Kustomization's applied
+   revision is not the revision the GitRepository fetched from `main`, and **clears when all have
+   caught up**. Fired mail = "a deploy started"; **resolved mail = "it completed"** — the completion
+   half is delivered by `send_resolved`, not by a second rule. `FluxRolloutStuck` (`severity:
+   warning`, `for: 30m`) is the same expression as the escalation for a rollout that started and
+   never converged.
+3. **Alertmanager** — a dedicated `severity = "info"` route and `email-deploy` receiver, subject
+   `[FLUX] applying|applied — …`. Without it a routine deploy would have arrived subject-lined
+   `[WARNING]` via the catch-all receiver and become indistinguishable from a real fault.
+   `group_by: [alertname]` collapses all 16 Kustomizations into one mail per rollout;
+   `group_interval: 2m` so completion is not held 4m behind the event.
+4. **`platform/monitoring/tests/flux-rollout.test.yaml`** — 6 promtool scenarios, both directions.
+5. **`runbooks/flux-rollout.md`** (+ its `configMapGenerator` entry) and a `kube_flux_` entry in
+   `conformance/tests/l0-static/alert-metrics-have-scrape-targets/check.sh` whose `require` patterns
+   pin `customResourceState`, both `metricNamePrefix`es, both `apiGroups` and the roll-counter — so
+   deleting any of them fails the gate instead of silently re-inerting the alerts.
+
+Two guards in the expression, each with a test whose only job is to fail if that clause is removed:
+`and on () (count(kube_flux_gitrepository_info…) > 0)` (without it, a missing exporter makes
+`unless on (revision) <empty>` remove nothing and **all 16 Kustomizations alert forever** — the
+permanently-firing mode this repo shipped once already), and `unless on (namespace, name)
+(kube_flux_kustomization_suspended == 1)` (a suspended Kustomization pins an old revision by design
+and would hold the rollout open, so the "applied" mail would never arrive).
+
+## What I verified
+
+Measured against live prod (`--context k3s-prod`) **before** writing anything, and quoted here as
+measured:
+
+- `notification-controller` `1/1`, image `ghcr.io/fluxcd/notification-controller:v1.4.0`;
+  `alerts`/`providers`/`receivers.notification.toolkit.fluxcd.io` all serve `v1beta3` (storage);
+  `get providers,alerts -A` → **`No resources found`**. This is the defect.
+- Event counts above, from `kubectl get events -A -o json` filtered to `toolkit.fluxcd.io`
+  involvedObjects: 101 `Kustomization/ReconciliationSucceeded`, 10 `Progressing`, 15
+  `DependencyNotReady`, 4 `GitRepository/GitOperationSucceeded`, 1 `NewArtifact`.
+- The `gotk_*` family **is** in the TSDB now (`flux-podmonitor` works): 6 targets up in job
+  `flux-system/flux-system`, `gotk_reconcile_condition` 120 series, `gotk_suspend_status` 40
+  (`{kind="Kustomization"}` = 16) — and none carries a revision.
+- `customResourceState` already works end to end: `kube_velero_schedule_{created,paused,
+  protects_volume_data,info}` = 2 series each.
+- Both CRDs serve **`v1` as the storage version**; `GitRepository/flux-system`
+  `.status.artifact.revision` = `main@sha1:b93594b7c85aeec4d28e008b239d61d181e1e6de`, `spec.interval`
+  `1m`; all 16 Kustomizations report that same `lastAppliedRevision`; **none** sets `spec.suspend`
+  (which is why `nilIsZero: true` is mandatory).
+- Reachability for the follow-up below: `flux-system/allow-egress` is `egress: [{}]` (allow-all) and
+  the `monitoring` namespace has **no NetworkPolicy at all**, so nothing blocks flux-system →
+  `kube-prometheus-stack-alertmanager` (`10.43.60.242:9093`).
+- `promtool test rules` on the new suite: **SUCCESS**, 53 rules parsed, promtool 3.14.0 from the
+  pinned toolbox. All 6 scenarios pass, including both guard tests and the convergence test that
+  proves the alert empties itself (the completion mail).
+- Full gate in the pinned toolbox: `lint`, `l0`, `render-golden`, `l1`, `decisions-log`,
+  `spec-immutability` all **green** — `l0` includes `alert-metrics-have-scrape-targets`,
+  `alert-rules-unit-tested` and `alert-runbooks-resolvable`, i.e. the new owner entry, the new tests
+  and the new runbook all cleared their own checks. Coverage 51/51.
+
+## What I did NOT verify
+
+- **No mail has been sent.** Nothing here has run on the cluster: the metrics do not exist yet, the
+  rules are not loaded, and the `email-deploy` receiver has never delivered. The end-to-end claim
+  ("a merge produces an `[FLUX] applying` mail and then an `[FLUX] applied` mail") is **UNVERIFIED**
+  and can only be proven by merging this and watching the *next* commit. Agents cannot apply, and
+  CI has no cluster (`vars.CLUSTER_AVAILABLE` unset → L2/L3 did not run).
+- **The KSM custom-resource-state paths are asserted, not observed.** I verified the CRD storage
+  versions and that each status field is populated on the live objects, but I have not seen KSM emit
+  `kube_flux_*`. If a path is wrong KSM emits the metric with the label **omitted**, `revision!=""`
+  then drops the series, and the alerts go quiet rather than wrong — the safe direction, but the
+  first thing to check after merge:
+  `count by (__name__) ({__name__=~"kube_flux.*"})` must return **three** names.
+- **KSM memory was not re-measured.** Limit is 384Mi against a working set of ~111–123Mi; this adds
+  two small informers (16 + 1 objects). 91 OOMKills followed the *last* CRS addition at a 128Mi
+  limit, so re-measure `max_over_time(container_memory_working_set_bytes{container="kube-state-metrics"}[6h])`
+  after this settles rather than assuming the headroom holds.
+- **Alertmanager's `.Status` subject template is untested.** `[FLUX] applying|applied` relies on
+  `.Status` being `firing`/`resolved` in the notification template data. Wrong, and the mail still
+  arrives with a poorer subject — cosmetic, but unproven.
+- **The `notification-controller` `Provider`/`Alert` half is designed but NOT shipped.** It was cut
+  deliberately: its unique value over the rules above is the human-readable **commit subject**
+  (`GitRepository`/`NewArtifact`, count 1 per commit, message `stored artifact for commit '<subject>'`,
+  revision in `source.toolkit.fluxcd.io/revision` metadata), and notification-controller has **no
+  SMTP provider**, so it must post into Alertmanager via `type: alertmanager` at
+  `http://kube-prometheus-stack-alertmanager.monitoring.svc:9093/api/v2/alerts`. I could not
+  establish **what label set that provider actually emits** (whether it sets `alertname`, and whether
+  `severity` is `info`) without applying it, and the `email-deploy` route matches on `severity`. So
+  the route design would have rested on a guess. Follow-up: apply it, read the resulting labels off
+  Alertmanager, then wire the route — and put it in its **own `wait: false` Flux Kustomization**
+  (never `platform` or `platform-config`, both `wait: true`), because a notification mechanism that
+  cannot go Ready must never be able to stall the delivery graph, which is the twice-shipped
+  cold-start deadlock this repo already documents.
+- **The 2500-count drift loop is NOT fixed, and is not mine.** Five Kustomizations have been
+  re-applying the same object every 10 minutes for ~25 days: something outside git is mutating
+  `NetworkPolicy/{unifi,gitea,nextcloud,seerr}/default-deny` and
+  `CustomResourceDefinition/cdis.cdi.kubevirt.io` after Flux applies them. Cause **UNVERIFIED** —
+  I only measured the event counts. It is a real defect (constant write load on the API server and
+  etcd, on a cluster with a known etcd I/O problem on prod-1) and it deserves its own branch. The
+  alerts here are immune to it by construction: they read revisions, not events.
+- **Branch protection / runner state re-measured? No.** The `gitea-settings` stage **SKIPPED**
+  (`SETTINGS_API_TOKEN` unset), so whether `main` is still protected and the gate still required is
+  UNVERIFIED by this run. The gate's overall verdict is therefore **rc 3, not rc 0** — every stage
+  that ran is green, and one stage did not run.

decisions/2026-09-30-flux-deploy-notification-inhibited.md

@@ -0,0 +1,95 @@
+---
+date: 2026-09-30
+branch: fix/flux-deploy-notification-inhibited
+title: The deploy notification routed correctly and was then inhibited before sending — `severity: info` is a suppressed class in kube-prometheus-stack
+---
+
+## What changed
+
+`FluxRolloutInProgress` (shipped hours earlier in PR #25) fired correctly on the very first real
+deploy and **its mail was suppressed before Alertmanager sent it**. One label changed:
+
+- `platform/monitoring/alerts.yaml` — `FluxRolloutInProgress` now carries `notification: deploy` and
+  **no `severity` label at all**, where it previously carried `severity: info`.
+- `platform/monitoring/kube-prometheus-stack.yaml` — the deploy route matches
+  `notification = "deploy"` instead of `severity = "info"`. Receiver, subject and grouping unchanged.
+- `platform/monitoring/tests/flux-rollout.test.yaml` — the three `FluxRolloutInProgress` `exp_labels`
+  blocks updated. `FluxRolloutStuck` keeps `severity: warning` and is unaffected.
+
+**The mechanism, measured rather than reasoned about.** kube-prometheus-stack's `general.rules`
+ships:
+
+    InfoInhibitor:
+      group by (namespace) (ALERTS{severity="info"} == 1)
+        unless on (namespace) group by (namespace)
+          (ALERTS{alertname!="InfoInhibitor", alertstate="firing", severity=~"warning|critical"} == 1)
+
+which fires for any namespace holding a firing `severity="info"` alert **and nothing else wrong in
+it**. The chart's third `inhibit_rule` then drops exactly that alert:
+
+    source_matchers: [alertname="InfoInhibitor"]
+    target_matchers: [severity="info"]
+    equal:           [namespace]
+
+For a deploy notification this is the worst possible interaction, because the suppressed case is the
+*only* case that matters: on a healthy rollout of a healthy cluster, `flux-system` holds no warning
+or critical alert, so `InfoInhibitor` fires and the deploy mail is inhibited. It would have been
+delivered only when something else in `flux-system` was already broken.
+
+Upstream's intent is explicit and reasonable — `severity: info` means "only worth showing next to a
+real problem". A deploy notice is not that, so it must not claim that severity. `notification` is a
+label **no** `inhibit_rule` in the chart targets (all three match on severity values), and dropping
+`severity` also stops `InfoInhibitor` firing for `flux-system` at all rather than merely working
+around it. Both files carry the full reasoning inline, and `alerts.yaml`'s design header now names
+the severity label as a third thing that must not regress — "do not tidy this by adding a severity"
+— because the next reader's instinct will be to add one back.
+
+## What I verified
+
+Against live prod, after PR #25 merged as `64c72fd` and Flux converged:
+
+- **The metrics work.** `kube_flux_kustomization_info` 16, `kube_flux_kustomization_suspended` 16,
+  `kube_flux_gitrepository_info` 1 = **33 series, exactly as designed**. The `revision` label IS
+  populated (`main@sha1:296d6d3…` / `…64c72fd…`), so the `status.lastAppliedRevision` /
+  `status.artifact.revision` paths are correct — previously UNVERIFIED.
+- **The `podAnnotations` roll mechanism works.** The KSM pod carries
+  `homelab.keithjackson.dev/crs-config-rollout: 1` and is a new pod
+  (`…-7b56d98f46-56n8j`, replacing the 2026-09-19 one), so the config-only-change trap was
+  genuinely closed rather than merely documented.
+- **The rule works, in both directions.** It fired for **12** lagging Kustomizations while 4 had
+  converged (`count by (revision)` → 12 old / 4 new), each alert carrying its own `name` and
+  `revision`; then the rollout converged (`count(count by (revision) (…))` → **1**) and the alert
+  **cleared**. Firing and self-clearing are both confirmed on real data, which is the completion
+  notification's whole mechanism.
+- **The routing works.** `amtool config routes` shows
+  `{notification="deploy"} → receiver: email-deploy` under the default route, and
+  `amtool config routes test notification=deploy` returns `email-deploy`.
+- **The inhibition was real.** `InfoInhibitor` went active `2026-09-30T04:58:48Z` — the same moment
+  the alert began firing — and `amtool alert query` showed **no** `FluxRolloutInProgress` in
+  Alertmanager, active or `--inhibited`. `alertmanager_notifications_failed_total{integration=email}`
+  is 0 for every reason, so nothing failed to send; it was never dispatched.
+- promtool: **SUCCESS**, 53 rules, 6 scenarios, promtool 3.14.0 in the pinned toolbox.
+
+## What I did NOT verify
+
+- **No deploy mail has been observed in the inbox — this fix is UNVERIFIED end to end.** The
+  suppression was proven (nothing in Alertmanager, zero send failures) and the routing was proven
+  (`amtool config routes test` → `email-deploy`), but the delivered message is not. It can only be
+  proven by merging this and watching the next commit produce `[FLUX] applying` and then
+  `[FLUX] applied`. Same structural gap as PR #25, one layer further along.
+- **Whether the single email during the window was ours.**
+  `alertmanager_notifications_total{integration="email"}` went 226 → 227 while other alerts
+  (`Watchdog`, `CNPGPrimariesCoLocated`) were also active, and that counter carries no receiver
+  label, so the increment cannot be attributed. I am NOT claiming our mail was or was not sent — the
+  attribution is genuinely unavailable from this metric.
+- **Whether `InfoInhibitor` interacts with `FluxRolloutStuck`.** Stuck is `severity: warning`;
+  inhibit_rule 1 (`critical` → `warning|info`) requires an equal `alertname`, so it should not
+  apply — reasoned, not measured. Worth confirming the first time a rollout genuinely hangs.
+- **The `[FLUX] applying|applied` subject template** is still untested; `.Status` is assumed to be
+  `firing`/`resolved` in the notification template data.
+- **`required_approvals` disagreement, unresolved and not mine to settle.** Live branch protection
+  reads `required_approvals: 1`, while the `ci/gate.sh` comment introduced by PR #17 describes the
+  model as `required_approvals: 0` ("the gate is the approver"). `ci/gitea-settings.sh` may report
+  this as drift against `infra/gitea/expected-branch-protection.json`. Flagged only.
+- **The drift loop is still unexplained.** Five Kustomizations re-applying the same object every
+  10 minutes (event counts ~2500) — untouched, cause unknown, still deserves its own branch.

infra/gitea/approval-policy.json

@@ -0,0 +1,28 @@
+{
+  "_intent": "The CI/CD pipeline is the approver. A human approval is required ONLY for changes that alter what the pipeline itself verifies, or the security posture it rests on -- because those are the changes CI cannot honestly gate: a PR that weakens the gate would be approved by the weakened gate.",
+  "_rule": "If a PR touches any sensitive_paths glob, it needs an APPROVED review from someone who is not its author. Everything else merges on a green gate alone.",
+  "_on_failure_to_evaluate": "BLOCK. Unlike gitea-settings, a skip here is a bypass, not a gap.",
+  "sensitive_paths": [
+    "ci/**",
+    ".gitea/**",
+    "conformance/**",
+    "clusters/**",
+    "bootstrap/**",
+    "infra/gitea/**",
+    "platform/kyverno/**",
+    "platform-config/kustomization.yaml",
+    ".sops.yaml",
+    "**/*.sops.yaml",
+    "**/rbac.yaml",
+    "CLAUDE.md"
+  ],
+  "_why_each": {
+    "ci/**, .gitea/**": "the pipeline itself -- the thing doing the approving",
+    "conformance/**": "the tests and the harness; changing them changes what green MEANS",
+    "clusters/**, bootstrap/**": "Flux wiring -- what reconciles, in what order, with what substitution",
+    "infra/gitea/**, platform-config/kustomization.yaml": "branch protection, the drift detector, and the list that decides which admission policies are actually applied",
+    "platform/kyverno/**": "the admission policy engine",
+    ".sops.yaml, **/*.sops.yaml, **/rbac.yaml": "encryption recipients, secrets, and cluster authority",
+    "CLAUDE.md": "the delivery contract agents follow"
+  }
+}

platform/monitoring/alerts.yaml

@@ -799,6 +799,123 @@ spec:
             summary: "Flux resource suspended: {{ $labels.kind }}/{{ $labels.name }}"
             description: "{{ $labels.kind }} {{ $labels.namespace }}/{{ $labels.name }} has been suspended for 1h — reconciliation/drift-correction is off."
             runbook_url: "https://${BASE_DOMAIN}/runbooks/flux-suspended"
+        # ===================================================================================
+        # DEPLOY NOTIFICATIONS (added 2026-09-29). The only rules in this repo whose PURPOSE is to
+        # send mail on the HEALTHY path: the operator asked to be told when Flux starts applying a
+        # git change and when it finishes. Read the two together — they share one expression and
+        # differ only in `for` and severity.
+        #
+        # WHY A RULE AND NOT A FLUX Alert/Provider. Neither Flux event can be filtered into a
+        # deploy signal. Measured on prod 2026-09-29: a Kustomization emits ReconciliationSucceeded
+        # on EVERY interval tick (101 events in one hour across 16 Kustomizations) with the message
+        # "Reconciliation finished in 324ms, next run in 10m0s" — byte-identical whether the apply
+        # changed anything or not; and `Progressing` is worse, because five Kustomizations re-apply
+        # the same object on every tick (event counts 2505/2504/2501/2495/2490), so anything keyed
+        # on it mails five times every ten minutes forever. The applied REVISION is the only signal
+        # that moves when and only when git moves. See the kube_flux_* block in
+        # kube-prometheus-stack.yaml for how it reaches the TSDB.
+        #
+        # THE EXPRESSION. `unless on (revision)` keeps a Kustomization only while its applied
+        # revision is absent from the set of revisions the GitRepository has fetched — i.e. while it
+        # is behind main. It empties itself as each Kustomization catches up, which is what makes
+        # the RESOLVED notification mean "the rollout completed" rather than "the alert timed out".
+        # Alertmanager's email-deploy receiver carries send_resolved: true for exactly that reason,
+        # and group_by: [alertname] collapses all 16 Kustomizations into one mail per rollout.
+        #
+        # TWO GUARDS, BOTH LOAD-BEARING, BOTH UNIT-TESTED (tests/flux-rollout.test.yaml):
+        #   * `and on () (count(...) > 0)` — if kube_flux_gitrepository_info is ABSENT (KSM rolled
+        #     without the ConfigMap, the flux RBAC lost, customResourceState reverted) then
+        #     `unless on (revision) <empty>` removes NOTHING and all 16 Kustomizations alert
+        #     forever, for no reason. That is the permanently-firing failure mode this repo already
+        #     shipped once (CNPG, 2026-09-12). The guard makes the missing-exporter case SILENT,
+        #     which is the correct direction for a notification — a broken exporter is what
+        #     FluxReconciliationFailure and the platform-health.monitoring-self rules are for.
+        #   * `unless on (namespace, name) (kube_flux_kustomization_suspended == 1)` — a suspended
+        #     Kustomization pins an old revision BY DESIGN, and would otherwise hold a rollout open
+        #     for as long as it stays suspended, so the resolved mail (the "it finished" half of the
+        #     feature) would never arrive. FluxResourceSuspended above is what reports that state.
+        #
+        # `revision!=""` on both sides: KSM omits a label whose path is absent, so a Kustomization
+        # that has never applied anything — or a GitRepository with no artifact yet — publishes the
+        # series with no `revision` label. Without the matcher those group together under the empty
+        # string and compare EQUAL, i.e. a never-applied Kustomization would read as converged.
+        #
+        # A THIRD THING THAT MUST NOT REGRESS — THE SEVERITY LABEL. These alerts are delivered
+        # because of the labels they do NOT carry as much as the ones they do. Do not "tidy" this
+        # pair by giving FluxRolloutInProgress a `severity`, and never `severity: info`: the chart's
+        # InfoInhibitor rule plus its `severity="info"` inhibit_rule suppress an info alert whenever
+        # it is the only thing firing in its namespace, which is every healthy deploy. Measured on
+        # prod 2026-09-30 — the alert fired correctly for 12 Kustomizations, resolved correctly, and
+        # was inhibited in between. The full reasoning is on the `notification: deploy` label below.
+        # ===================================================================================
+        - alert: FluxRolloutInProgress
+          expr: |
+            (
+              (
+                kube_flux_kustomization_info{revision!=""}
+                unless on (namespace, name) (kube_flux_kustomization_suspended == 1)
+              )
+              unless on (revision) kube_flux_gitrepository_info{name="flux-system", revision!=""}
+            )
+            and on () (count(kube_flux_gitrepository_info{name="flux-system", revision!=""}) > 0)
+          # NO `for:`, ON PURPOSE. Every other rule in this file waits, because every other rule
+          # reports a fault and a fault that clears in 30s is noise. This one reports an EVENT the
+          # operator asked to be told about, so the failure mode to avoid is the opposite: a `for:`
+          # of even 1m would silently swallow any rollout that converged faster than that (a manual
+          # `flux reconcile`, a change touching one Kustomization), and a deploy notification that
+          # only sometimes arrives is worse than no notification at all.
+          labels:
+            # ROUTED BY `notification`, AND DELIBERATELY CARRYING NO `severity` (fixed 2026-09-30).
+            # This alert originally used `severity: info`. That was WRONG, and wrong in the silent
+            # direction — measured on prod within minutes of the first real deploy.
+            # kube-prometheus-stack ships `general.rules` -> InfoInhibitor:
+            #     group by (namespace) (ALERTS{severity="info"} == 1)
+            #       unless on (namespace) group by (namespace)
+            #         (ALERTS{alertname!="InfoInhibitor", alertstate="firing", severity=~"warning|critical"} == 1)
+            # which fires for any namespace that has a firing info alert AND NOTHING ELSE WRONG in
+            # it; paired with the chart's inhibit_rule
+            #     source_matchers: [alertname="InfoInhibitor"]
+            #     target_matchers: [severity="info"]
+            #     equal: [namespace]
+            # the effect is that an info alert is suppressed EXACTLY WHEN it is the only thing
+            # happening in its namespace. For a deploy notification that is the only case that
+            # matters: on a healthy rollout of a healthy cluster, flux-system has no warning or
+            # critical alert, so InfoInhibitor fired and this alert never reached the receiver.
+            # Verified live: InfoInhibitor went active 2026-09-30T04:58:48Z, the same moment this
+            # alert began firing for 12 Kustomizations.
+            # Upstream's intent is explicit — `severity: info` means "only worth showing next to a
+            # real problem". A deploy notice is not that, so it must not claim that severity.
+            # `notification` is a label no inhibit_rule in the chart targets (all three match on
+            # severity values), and omitting `severity` also stops InfoInhibitor firing for
+            # flux-system at all. Route: platform/monitoring/kube-prometheus-stack.yaml matches
+            # `notification = "deploy"` -> the email-deploy receiver, subject "[FLUX] applying|applied".
+            notification: deploy
+          annotations:
+            summary: "Flux is applying a new revision — {{ $labels.name }} is behind main"
+            description: "Kustomization {{ $labels.namespace }}/{{ $labels.name }} has applied {{ $labels.revision }}, which is not the revision the flux-system GitRepository has fetched from main. THIS MAIL MEANS A GIT CHANGE STARTED ROLLING OUT; the RESOLVED mail for this same alert means every Kustomization reached the new revision and the rollout is complete."
+            runbook_url: "https://${BASE_DOMAIN}/runbooks/flux-rollout"
+        # The escalation: a rollout that STARTED and never finished. Same expression, so it cannot
+        # disagree with the notification above about what "behind main" means; 30m is comfortably
+        # past the slowest legitimate convergence (the longest Kustomization interval is 1h for
+        # cilium, but its dependents are 10m and a wave chain converges well inside 30m).
+        # severity: warning, so this one takes the normal email-warning path and reads as a fault.
+        - alert: FluxRolloutStuck
+          expr: |
+            (
+              (
+                kube_flux_kustomization_info{revision!=""}
+                unless on (namespace, name) (kube_flux_kustomization_suspended == 1)
+              )
+              unless on (revision) kube_flux_gitrepository_info{name="flux-system", revision!=""}
+            )
+            and on () (count(kube_flux_gitrepository_info{name="flux-system", revision!=""}) > 0)
+          for: 30m
+          labels:
+            severity: warning
+          annotations:
+            summary: "Flux rollout has not completed: {{ $labels.name }} stuck on an old revision"
+            description: "Kustomization {{ $labels.namespace }}/{{ $labels.name }} has been behind the flux-system GitRepository revision for 30m (applied {{ $labels.revision }}) — a git change started rolling out and has not converged. Check the Kustomization's Ready condition and its dependencies."
+            runbook_url: "https://${BASE_DOMAIN}/runbooks/flux-rollout"
 
 # =====================================================================================
 # Certificates — cert-manager

platform/monitoring/kube-prometheus-stack.yaml

@@ -131,6 +131,44 @@ spec:
               # page-worthy — notify fast, remind often
               group_wait: 10s
               repeat_interval: 1h
+            # DEPLOY NOTICES, not health alerts (added 2026-09-29). FluxRolloutInProgress fires
+            # the moment the applied revision diverges from main and RESOLVES when every
+            # Kustomization has caught up — so the FIRED mail is "a deploy started" and the
+            # RESOLVED mail is "it finished". Both halves are the product, which is why
+            # send_resolved must stay true on the receiver below.
+            #
+            # A DEDICATED ROUTE, because the default receiver is `email-warning`: without it a
+            # routine deploy arrives subject-lined "[WARNING]" and becomes indistinguishable from a
+            # real platform fault, which is how alert mail stops being read at all.
+            #
+            # MATCHES `notification`, NOT `severity` (corrected 2026-09-30). This route first read
+            # `severity = "info"`, which routed correctly and then had the mail SUPPRESSED before it
+            # was sent: the chart's own InfoInhibitor rule fires for any namespace holding a firing
+            # info alert with no warning/critical beside it, and its inhibit_rule
+            # (source alertname="InfoInhibitor" -> target severity="info", equal [namespace]) drops
+            # exactly that alert. A healthy deploy in a healthy flux-system is precisely that case,
+            # so the notification was inhibited on every occasion it was wanted. Measured live on
+            # prod 2026-09-30: InfoInhibitor went active at 04:58:48Z as the alert began firing.
+            # Routing on a non-severity label sidesteps all three of the chart's inhibit_rules,
+            # which match on severity values only. See the label's own comment in alerts.yaml.
+            - matchers: ['notification = "deploy"']
+              receiver: email-deploy
+              # One mail per ROLLOUT, not per Kustomization: the alert fires once per lagging
+              # Kustomization (16 possible), and grouping on alertname alone collapses them into a
+              # single mail that lists all of them. The default group_by would have split them by
+              # namespace as well — harmless today (all 16 are in flux-system) and wrong the moment
+              # a Kustomization lives elsewhere.
+              group_by: ["alertname"]
+              group_wait: 30s
+              # 2m, not the 5m default: group_interval also bounds how long a group's RESOLVED
+              # notification waits, and holding "the deploy finished" four minutes behind the
+              # deploy finishing makes the completion half of this feature feel broken.
+              group_interval: 2m
+              # A deploy notice is a statement about one revision, so re-sending it on the 12h
+              # default would just repeat old news. 24h is long enough never to fire twice for one
+              # rollout, while still re-nagging if a rollout is genuinely stuck for a whole day
+              # (FluxRolloutStuck, severity warning, is the real escalation for that case).
+              repeat_interval: 24h
         receivers:
           - name: email-warning
             email_configs:
@@ -144,6 +182,19 @@ spec:
                 send_resolved: true
                 headers:
                   subject: '[CRITICAL] {{ .CommonLabels.alertname }} ({{ .CommonLabels.namespace }})'
+          # Flux deploy notices (the `severity = "info"` route above).
+          - name: email-deploy
+            email_configs:
+              - to: "[email protected]"    # alert inbox (operator: change if a different inbox is wanted)
+                # BOTH transitions are the deliverable here: firing = "Flux started applying a new
+                # revision", resolved = "every Kustomization reached it". Turning this off would
+                # delete the completion notification, not merely reduce noise.
+                send_resolved: true
+                headers:
+                  # `[FLUX] applying` / `[FLUX] applied` — readable in a notification preview
+                  # without opening the mail, and never the word WARNING for a healthy deploy.
+                  # .Status is "firing" or "resolved" in Alertmanager's notification template data.
+                  subject: '[FLUX] {{ if eq .Status "firing" }}applying{{ else }}applied{{ end }} — {{ .CommonLabels.alertname }}'
 
     # --- Grafana: dashboards (R-OBS-03), surfaced in the C2 UI (docs/12) behind Keycloak SSO ---
     grafana:
@@ -272,11 +323,33 @@ spec:
       #     `config` alone does not restart the pod: after editing it, `kubectl -n monitoring rollout
       #     restart deploy/kube-prometheus-stack-kube-state-metrics`. Enabling it the first time
       #     changes the pod spec (new arg + volume), so the initial rollout is automatic.
+      # FORCE A POD ROLL WHEN `customResourceState.config` BELOW CHANGES. The chart renders that
+      # config into a ConfigMap and mounts it, but the KSM Deployment carries NO checksum annotation
+      # over it — documented in the block above, and the reason the Velero metrics needed a manual
+      # `rollout restart` when they were first tuned. So a PR that edits ONLY `config` changes the
+      # ConfigMap, leaves the pod spec byte-identical, and KSM keeps running the OLD collector set:
+      # the new metrics never appear and every alert reading them is inert, while the PR is merged
+      # and green. That is the exact shape of defect this repo keeps getting bitten by, so it is
+      # closed declaratively rather than by remembering an operator step. BUMP THIS VALUE IN THE
+      # SAME COMMIT as any `customResourceState.config` edit and Flux rolls the pod for you.
+      # (Same mechanism as grafana.podAnnotations/oidc-rollout above.)
+      podAnnotations:
+        homelab.keithjackson.dev/crs-config-rollout: "1"
       rbac:
         extraRules:
           - apiGroups: ["velero.io"]
             resources: ["schedules"]
             verbs: ["get", "list", "watch"]
+          # Flux applied-revision metrics (the kube_flux_* block at the end of `config` below).
+          # MANDATORY for the same measured reason as velero.io above: without read access KSM
+          # publishes the custom-resource-state metrics as an EMPTY SET and logs a forbidden
+          # error, which would leave FluxRolloutInProgress/FluxRolloutStuck inert — silently.
+          - apiGroups: ["kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io"]
+            resources: ["kustomizations"]
+            verbs: ["get", "list", "watch"]
+          - apiGroups: ["source.toolkit.fluxcd.io"]
+            resources: ["gitrepositories"]
+            verbs: ["get", "list", "watch"]
       customResourceState:
         enabled: true
         config:
@@ -328,6 +401,89 @@ spec:
                         labelsFromPath:
                           cron: [spec, schedule]
                           phase: [status, phase]
+              # --- FLUX APPLIED REVISION AS METRICS (added 2026-09-29) --------------------------
+              # WHY. Nothing in the TSDB could answer "is the cluster running the commit that is on
+              # main?", so "Flux started applying a git change" and "Flux is idle" were
+              # indistinguishable and a deploy could start, stall halfway and never finish with
+              # nothing to say so. Measured on prod 2026-09-29, all three candidate signals fail:
+              #   * gotk_* (scraped by flux-podmonitor.yaml) carries NO revision label anywhere —
+              #     gotk_reconcile_condition 120 series, gotk_suspend_status 40, not one with a
+              #     revision. It can say a Kustomization is unhealthy, never which commit it holds.
+              #   * the EVENT stream cannot be filtered into a deploy signal: a Kustomization emits
+              #     ReconciliationSucceeded on EVERY interval tick — 101 events in one hour across
+              #     16 Kustomizations — with the message "Reconciliation finished in 324ms, next run
+              #     in 10m0s", byte-identical whether the apply changed anything or not.
+              #   * `Progressing` is worse, not better: five Kustomizations re-apply the same object
+              #     on every single tick (2505/2504/2501/2495/2490 on one event object each), so
+              #     anything keyed on it fires five times every ten minutes, forever.
+              # The applied REVISION is the one signal that moves only when git moves, and it lives
+              # in these two objects' status and nowhere else:
+              #   GitRepository/flux-system  .status.artifact.revision   = what main is (poll 1m)
+              #   Kustomization/*            .status.lastAppliedRevision = what is applied
+              # Exporting both makes "applied != desired" a PromQL question, which is what
+              # FluxRolloutInProgress / FluxRolloutStuck ask (platform/monitoring/alerts.yaml).
+              #
+              # NAMING: kube_flux_*, NOT gotk_* — the same rule as kube_velero_schedule_* above.
+              # These are kube-state-metrics series ABOUT Kubernetes objects and must never be
+              # mistaken for the gotk_* family the Flux controllers themselves export.
+              #
+              # VERIFIED ON PROD before writing this (2026-09-29): both CRDs serve `v1` as the
+              # STORAGE version (kustomizations.kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io,
+              # gitrepositories.source.toolkit.fluxcd.io) and both status paths below are populated
+              # — artifact.revision=main@sha1:b93594b7…, and all 16 Kustomizations reporting that
+              # same revision as lastAppliedRevision.
+              #
+              # Cost: 2 series per Kustomization (16 today) + 1 for the GitRepository = 33.
+              - groupVersionKind:
+                  group: kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io
+                  version: v1
+                  kind: Kustomization
+                metricNamePrefix: kube_flux_kustomization
+                labelsFromPath:
+                  name: [metadata, name]
+                  namespace: [metadata, namespace]
+                metrics:
+                  - name: info
+                    help: "Revision a Flux Kustomization has applied (status.lastAppliedRevision)."
+                    each:
+                      type: Info
+                      info:
+                        # KSM OMITS a label whose path is absent (the same behaviour noted for the
+                        # Velero `phase` label above), so a Kustomization that has never applied
+                        # anything publishes this series with NO `revision` label at all rather than
+                        # an empty one. Every rule that reads it therefore matches revision!="" —
+                        # otherwise those would collapse together under the empty string and a
+                        # never-applied Kustomization would compare equal to a converged one.
+                        labelsFromPath:
+                          revision: [status, lastAppliedRevision]
+                  - name: suspended
+                    help: "1 if the Flux Kustomization is suspended (spec.suspend)."
+                    each:
+                      type: Gauge
+                      gauge:
+                        # nilIsZero is MANDATORY, exactly as for the Velero `paused` gauge above:
+                        # measured 2026-09-29, NONE of the 16 Kustomizations sets spec.suspend at
+                        # all. Without it this metric would not exist, and the `unless` that stops a
+                        # suspended Kustomization holding a rollout notification open forever would
+                        # silently match nothing.
+                        path: [spec, suspend]
+                        nilIsZero: true
+              - groupVersionKind:
+                  group: source.toolkit.fluxcd.io
+                  version: v1
+                  kind: GitRepository
+                metricNamePrefix: kube_flux_gitrepository
+                labelsFromPath:
+                  name: [metadata, name]
+                  namespace: [metadata, namespace]
+                metrics:
+                  - name: info
+                    help: "Revision of the artifact a Flux GitRepository has fetched (what main is)."
+                    each:
+                      type: Info
+                      info:
+                        labelsFromPath:
+                          revision: [status, artifact, revision]
       # MEMORY RAISED 2026-09-13 after 91 OOMKills. Measured, not guessed: working set 111 MiB
       # with a 6h peak of 123.3 MiB against the old 128Mi limit — KSM was dying on every spike,
       # roughly every 11 minutes (exit 137). That matters beyond the restarts: THIRTEEN alert

platform/monitoring/tests/flux-rollout.test.yaml

@@ -0,0 +1,268 @@
+# promtool rule-unit tests for FluxRolloutInProgress / FluxRolloutStuck — the deploy-notification
+# pair in the platform-health.flux group (platform/monitoring/alerts.yaml).
+# Run with: platform/monitoring/tests/run.sh   (the merge gate runs the same harness via
+#           conformance/tests/l0-static/alert-rules-unit-tested)
+#
+# WHY THESE TESTS CARRY MORE WEIGHT THAN USUAL. This pair is a NOTIFICATION, so both failure
+# directions are silent in production and neither is visible on a healthy cluster:
+#   * fire when it should not -> a permanently-firing "deploy in progress" that mails on every
+#     repeat_interval and trains the operator to ignore Flux mail. Shipped once already in this
+#     repo (CNPG, 2026-09-12).
+#   * fail to fire -> no deploy notification at all, which is the exact complaint this pair was
+#     written to answer. Indistinguishable from "no deploys happened".
+# So every clause is pinned in both directions here, and the two GUARDS in the expression (the
+# missing-exporter guard and the suspended-Kustomization exclusion) each get a test whose ONLY
+# job is to fail if that clause is deleted.
+#
+# MODELLING A REVISION CHANGE. `revision` is a LABEL, so a Kustomization moving from revision A to
+# revision B is modelled as series A ending and series B beginning — not as one series changing
+# value. Prometheus' 5m lookback then means series A is still resolvable for 5m after its last
+# sample, so every eval_time below is placed at least 5m clear of a handoff. That is deliberate:
+# it keeps these tests about the RULE and not about staleness semantics.
+#
+# Sample interval 1m; the longest `for` under test is 30m.
+rule_files:
+  - generated.rules.yaml
+
+evaluation_interval: 1m
+
+tests:
+  # =============================================================================================
+  # 1. CONVERGED — the steady state this cluster is in almost all of the time.
+  #    Both rules MUST be silent. This is the "not permanently firing" half of the proof, and it
+  #    is the test that fails if `unless on (revision)` is mis-spelled: the left-hand side is
+  #    non-empty here, and only the revision match suppresses it.
+  # =============================================================================================
+  - interval: 1m
+    name: converged (every Kustomization on the GitRepository revision) - silent
+    input_series:
+      - series: 'kube_flux_gitrepository_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="flux-system",revision="main@sha1:aaaaaaa",customresource_group="source.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="GitRepository",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x40'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="platform",revision="main@sha1:aaaaaaa",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x40'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="apps-wave-0",revision="main@sha1:aaaaaaa",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x40'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_suspended{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="platform",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '0x40'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_suspended{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="apps-wave-0",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '0x40'
+    alert_rule_test:
+      - eval_time: 35m
+        alertname: FluxRolloutInProgress
+        exp_alerts: []
+      - eval_time: 35m
+        alertname: FluxRolloutStuck
+        exp_alerts: []
+
+  # =============================================================================================
+  # 2. A COMMIT LANDS — the notification this whole change exists to produce.
+  #    GitRepository moves to revision bbbbbbb at t=11m. apps-wave-0 catches up at t=14m;
+  #    `platform` never does.
+  #      t=25m -> FluxRolloutInProgress fires for `platform` ONLY (apps-wave-0 has converged),
+  #               and FluxRolloutStuck is still quiet because its 30m has not elapsed.
+  #      t=50m -> both fire. ("started and never finished" is a real, separate condition.)
+  # =============================================================================================
+  - interval: 1m
+    name: new revision on main - InProgress fires for the lagging Kustomization only
+    input_series:
+      # The old artifact revision ends at t=10m, the new one starts at t=11m.
+      - series: 'kube_flux_gitrepository_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="flux-system",revision="main@sha1:aaaaaaa",customresource_group="source.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="GitRepository",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x10'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_gitrepository_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="flux-system",revision="main@sha1:bbbbbbb",customresource_group="source.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="GitRepository",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '_x10 1x70'
+      # `platform` stays on the old revision for the whole test.
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="platform",revision="main@sha1:aaaaaaa",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x80'
+      # apps-wave-0 catches up at t=14m.
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="apps-wave-0",revision="main@sha1:aaaaaaa",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x8'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="apps-wave-0",revision="main@sha1:bbbbbbb",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '_x13 1x67'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_suspended{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="platform",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '0x80'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_suspended{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="apps-wave-0",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '0x80'
+    alert_rule_test:
+      # The deploy notification, ~14m after the commit was fetched. Exactly ONE alert: a rule that
+      # ignored the revision match would also list apps-wave-0, which has already converged.
+      - eval_time: 25m
+        alertname: FluxRolloutInProgress
+        exp_alerts:
+          - exp_labels:
+              notification: deploy
+              job: kube-state-metrics
+              namespace: flux-system
+              name: platform
+              revision: "main@sha1:aaaaaaa"
+              customresource_group: kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io
+              customresource_kind: Kustomization
+              customresource_version: v1
+            exp_annotations:
+              summary: "Flux is applying a new revision — platform is behind main"
+              description: "Kustomization flux-system/platform has applied main@sha1:aaaaaaa, which is not the revision the flux-system GitRepository has fetched from main. THIS MAIL MEANS A GIT CHANGE STARTED ROLLING OUT; the RESOLVED mail for this same alert means every Kustomization reached the new revision and the rollout is complete."
+              runbook_url: "https://${BASE_DOMAIN}/runbooks/flux-rollout"
+      # `for: 30m` on the escalation is real — not yet firing 14m in.
+      - eval_time: 25m
+        alertname: FluxRolloutStuck
+        exp_alerts: []
+      # ...and it does fire once the rollout has genuinely hung.
+      - eval_time: 50m
+        alertname: FluxRolloutStuck
+        exp_alerts:
+          - exp_labels:
+              severity: warning
+              job: kube-state-metrics
+              namespace: flux-system
+              name: platform
+              revision: "main@sha1:aaaaaaa"
+              customresource_group: kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io
+              customresource_kind: Kustomization
+              customresource_version: v1
+            exp_annotations:
+              summary: "Flux rollout has not completed: platform stuck on an old revision"
+              description: "Kustomization flux-system/platform has been behind the flux-system GitRepository revision for 30m (applied main@sha1:aaaaaaa) — a git change started rolling out and has not converged. Check the Kustomization's Ready condition and its dependencies."
+              runbook_url: "https://${BASE_DOMAIN}/runbooks/flux-rollout"
+
+  # =============================================================================================
+  # 3. THE ROLLOUT COMPLETES -> the alert clears, which is what sends the "applied" mail.
+  #    Without this test the completion half of the feature is unproven: an expression that fired
+  #    correctly but never emptied itself would pass test 2 and still never deliver a resolved
+  #    notification.
+  # =============================================================================================
+  - interval: 1m
+    name: rollout completes - InProgress clears (this is the resolved/completion notification)
+    input_series:
+      - series: 'kube_flux_gitrepository_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="flux-system",revision="main@sha1:aaaaaaa",customresource_group="source.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="GitRepository",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x10'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_gitrepository_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="flux-system",revision="main@sha1:bbbbbbb",customresource_group="source.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="GitRepository",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '_x10 1x70'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="platform",revision="main@sha1:aaaaaaa",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x20'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="platform",revision="main@sha1:bbbbbbb",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '_x23 1x57'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_suspended{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="platform",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '0x80'
+    alert_rule_test:
+      # Mid-rollout: firing.
+      - eval_time: 20m
+        alertname: FluxRolloutInProgress
+        exp_alerts:
+          - exp_labels:
+              notification: deploy
+              job: kube-state-metrics
+              namespace: flux-system
+              name: platform
+              revision: "main@sha1:aaaaaaa"
+              customresource_group: kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io
+              customresource_kind: Kustomization
+              customresource_version: v1
+            exp_annotations:
+              summary: "Flux is applying a new revision — platform is behind main"
+              description: "Kustomization flux-system/platform has applied main@sha1:aaaaaaa, which is not the revision the flux-system GitRepository has fetched from main. THIS MAIL MEANS A GIT CHANGE STARTED ROLLING OUT; the RESOLVED mail for this same alert means every Kustomization reached the new revision and the rollout is complete."
+              runbook_url: "https://${BASE_DOMAIN}/runbooks/flux-rollout"
+      # Converged (5m clear of the old series' last sample at t=20m): silent, and it never had
+      # 30m of continuous firing, so the escalation must not have fired either.
+      - eval_time: 32m
+        alertname: FluxRolloutInProgress
+        exp_alerts: []
+      - eval_time: 32m
+        alertname: FluxRolloutStuck
+        exp_alerts: []
+
+  # =============================================================================================
+  # 4. GUARD 1 — kube_flux_gitrepository_info ABSENT (KSM rolled without the ConfigMap, the flux
+  #    RBAC was lost, customResourceState reverted). `unless on (revision) <empty set>` removes
+  #    NOTHING, so without the `and on () (count(...) > 0)` guard EVERY Kustomization alerts
+  #    forever. This test exists to go red the moment that guard is deleted.
+  #    Correct behaviour is SILENCE: a broken exporter is FluxReconciliationFailure's job and the
+  #    platform-health.monitoring-self rules', not a deploy notification's.
+  # =============================================================================================
+  - interval: 1m
+    name: GUARD - GitRepository metric absent - silent, NOT 16 alerts forever
+    input_series:
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="platform",revision="main@sha1:aaaaaaa",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x60'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="apps-wave-0",revision="main@sha1:aaaaaaa",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x60'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_suspended{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="platform",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '0x60'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_suspended{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="apps-wave-0",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '0x60'
+    promql_expr_test:
+      # Stated explicitly so the reason for the silence is unambiguous in the test output: the
+      # guard's own count is empty, not merely false.
+      - expr: 'count(kube_flux_gitrepository_info{name="flux-system", revision!=""})'
+        eval_time: 45m
+        exp_samples: []
+    alert_rule_test:
+      - eval_time: 45m
+        alertname: FluxRolloutInProgress
+        exp_alerts: []
+      - eval_time: 45m
+        alertname: FluxRolloutStuck
+        exp_alerts: []
+
+  # =============================================================================================
+  # 5. GUARD 2 — a SUSPENDED Kustomization pins an old revision by design. It must not hold the
+  #    rollout notification open (or the "applied" mail never arrives), while a non-suspended
+  #    Kustomization on the same old revision MUST still alert.
+  #    Both halves are asserted in one test on purpose: an `unless` written with the wrong labels
+  #    would suppress EVERYTHING and would pass a suppression-only test.
+  # =============================================================================================
+  - interval: 1m
+    name: GUARD - suspended Kustomization excluded, non-suspended one still alerts
+    input_series:
+      - series: 'kube_flux_gitrepository_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="flux-system",revision="main@sha1:bbbbbbb",customresource_group="source.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="GitRepository",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x40'
+      # Suspended and behind -> excluded.
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="platform",revision="main@sha1:aaaaaaa",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x40'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_suspended{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="platform",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x40'
+      # Not suspended and behind -> must alert.
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="conformance",revision="main@sha1:aaaaaaa",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x40'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_suspended{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="conformance",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '0x40'
+    alert_rule_test:
+      - eval_time: 20m
+        alertname: FluxRolloutInProgress
+        exp_alerts:
+          - exp_labels:
+              notification: deploy
+              job: kube-state-metrics
+              namespace: flux-system
+              name: conformance
+              revision: "main@sha1:aaaaaaa"
+              customresource_group: kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io
+              customresource_kind: Kustomization
+              customresource_version: v1
+            exp_annotations:
+              summary: "Flux is applying a new revision — conformance is behind main"
+              description: "Kustomization flux-system/conformance has applied main@sha1:aaaaaaa, which is not the revision the flux-system GitRepository has fetched from main. THIS MAIL MEANS A GIT CHANGE STARTED ROLLING OUT; the RESOLVED mail for this same alert means every Kustomization reached the new revision and the rollout is complete."
+              runbook_url: "https://${BASE_DOMAIN}/runbooks/flux-rollout"
+
+  # =============================================================================================
+  # 6. A Kustomization that has NEVER applied anything publishes no `revision` label at all (KSM
+  #    omits absent paths). `revision!=""` must drop it rather than let it group under the empty
+  #    string and compare equal to the GitRepository revision.
+  # =============================================================================================
+  - interval: 1m
+    name: never-applied Kustomization (no revision label) is not counted as converged or lagging
+    input_series:
+      - series: 'kube_flux_gitrepository_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="flux-system",revision="main@sha1:bbbbbbb",customresource_group="source.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="GitRepository",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x40'
+      # No `revision` label at all — this is what KSM publishes for status.lastAppliedRevision="".
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_info{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="brand-new",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '1x40'
+      - series: 'kube_flux_kustomization_suspended{job="kube-state-metrics",namespace="flux-system",name="brand-new",customresource_group="kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io",customresource_kind="Kustomization",customresource_version="v1"}'
+        values: '0x40'
+    alert_rule_test:
+      # Silent: FluxReconciliationFailure (Ready=False for 15m) is what covers a Kustomization
+      # that cannot apply at all. This pair only ever speaks about revisions it can compare.
+      - eval_time: 30m
+        alertname: FluxRolloutInProgress
+        exp_alerts: []
+      - eval_time: 30m
+        alertname: FluxRolloutStuck
+        exp_alerts: []

runbooks/flux-rollout.md

@@ -0,0 +1,118 @@
+# flux-rollout — a git change is rolling out, or has stopped halfway
+
+**Alerts:** `FluxRolloutInProgress` (info, no `for:`) and `FluxRolloutStuck` (warning, 30m)
+**File:** `platform/monitoring/alerts.yaml`, group `platform-health.flux`
+**Metrics:** `kube_flux_kustomization_info` / `kube_flux_kustomization_suspended` /
+`kube_flux_gitrepository_info` — kube-state-metrics custom-resource-state, configured in
+`platform/monitoring/kube-prometheus-stack.yaml`
+
+## What this means here
+
+These two are the **deploy notification**, not a fault report. On this cluster merging a PR into
+`main` IS the deploy, and until this pair existed nothing told you a deploy had begun: the Flux event
+stream emits `ReconciliationSucceeded` on every 10-minute tick whether or not anything changed (101
+such events in one hour, measured 2026-09-29), so "applying a commit" and "idle" looked identical.
+
+The pair reads the one signal that moves only when git moves — the **applied revision**:
+
+- `GitRepository/flux-system` `.status.artifact.revision` — what `main` is (polled every 1m)
+- `Kustomization/*` `.status.lastAppliedRevision` — what each tier has actually applied
+
+**`FluxRolloutInProgress` fires** the moment any non-suspended Kustomization's applied revision is
+not the revision fetched from `main`, and **clears when every one of them has caught up**. So:
+
+| Mail | Subject | Means |
+|---|---|---|
+| firing | `[FLUX] applying — FluxRolloutInProgress` | a commit started rolling out |
+| resolved | `[FLUX] applied — FluxRolloutInProgress` | every Kustomization reached it; rollout complete |
+
+Both are expected, routine, and not a problem. The `severity: info` label routes them to the
+dedicated `email-deploy` Alertmanager receiver so they never arrive subject-lined `[WARNING]`.
+
+**`FluxRolloutStuck` is the one that matters.** Same expression, `for: 30m`, `severity: warning`. It
+means a deploy started and did not converge — the "applying" mail arrived and the "applied" mail
+never did. The 14-tier chain is dependency-ordered and revision-gated, so a single stalled tier holds
+every tier below it on "dependency not ready".
+
+## First commands
+
+`kubectl` does not work on the workstation — the toolchain lives only in the pinned container, and
+the context must always be named explicitly.
+
+Which tiers are behind, and on what:
+
+```bash
+./infra/devcontainer/dev.sh run bash -c '
+  kubectl --context k3s-prod -n flux-system get gitrepository flux-system \
+    -o jsonpath="WANTED: {.status.artifact.revision}{\"\n\"}"
+  kubectl --context k3s-prod get kustomizations -A \
+    -o custom-columns="NAME:.metadata.name,APPLIED:.status.lastAppliedRevision,READY:.status.conditions[?(@.type==\"Ready\")].status"'
+```
+
+Any row whose `APPLIED` differs from `WANTED` is a tier this alert is naming. Then ask **why** that
+tier is not moving — its Ready condition carries the reason:
+
+```bash
+./infra/devcontainer/dev.sh run bash -c '
+  kubectl --context k3s-prod -n flux-system get kustomization <name> \
+    -o jsonpath="{range .status.conditions[*]}{.type}={.status} {.reason}: {.message}{\"\n\"}{end}"'
+```
+
+Confirm the alert is reading live data rather than a stale exporter:
+
+```bash
+./infra/devcontainer/dev.sh run bash -c '
+  POD=$(kubectl --context k3s-prod -n monitoring get pod -l app.kubernetes.io/name=prometheus -o name | head -1)
+  kubectl --context k3s-prod -n monitoring exec "$POD" -c prometheus -- \
+    /bin/promtool query instant http://localhost:9090 "count by (__name__) ({__name__=~\"kube_flux.*\"})"'
+```
+
+Three names must come back (`kube_flux_kustomization_info`, `kube_flux_kustomization_suspended`,
+`kube_flux_gitrepository_info`). If that query is **empty**, the alerts are inert — go to the last
+cause below.
+
+## Likely causes, most likely first
+
+1. **Nothing is wrong — the rollout is simply in flight.** Most Kustomizations reconcile on a 10m
+   interval and the chain is sequential, so several minutes between the "applying" and "applied"
+   mails is normal. `cilium` is on a 1h interval and can legitimately be the last to converge.
+2. **A gating tier is unhealthy, so everything below it is parked.** Look for `DependencyNotReady`
+   in the stuck tier's message and walk *up* the chain to the first tier that is not Ready; that one
+   is the real fault. Its own alert (`FluxReconciliationFailure`) and runbook `flux-reconcile` own it.
+3. **A Kustomization is suspended.** A suspended tier is excluded from this alert by design (so it
+   cannot hold the "applied" mail open forever), but anything that `dependsOn` it still stalls and
+   *will* show here. `FluxResourceSuspended` / runbook `flux-suspended` covers it.
+4. **A health check is timing out.** A `wait: true` tier only records `lastAppliedRevision` once its
+   objects pass health checks, so a workload that never goes Ready keeps the tier on the old
+   revision even though the manifests applied fine.
+5. **kube-state-metrics is not publishing the `kube_flux_*` family.** Then the rules are inert and
+   you would get *no* mail at all rather than a stuck one — so this is the cause when the complaint
+   is silence. The metrics come from `customResourceState` plus a read-only RBAC rule for
+   `kustomize.toolkit.fluxcd.io` / `source.toolkit.fluxcd.io`; without that RBAC, KSM emits the set
+   **empty** and logs a forbidden error. Check its logs:
+   ```bash
+   ./infra/devcontainer/dev.sh run bash -c '
+     kubectl --context k3s-prod -n monitoring logs deploy/kube-prometheus-stack-kube-state-metrics \
+       --tail=50 | grep -i "forbidden\|custom.resource" || echo "no RBAC complaints"'
+   ```
+   Note the chart puts **no checksum annotation** over that ConfigMap, so a change to the config
+   alone does not restart the pod — that is why `podAnnotations` carries a
+   `homelab.keithjackson.dev/crs-config-rollout` counter that must be bumped in the same commit.
+
+## When to escalate or stop
+
+- **`FluxRolloutInProgress` alone, cleared within ~15 minutes: do nothing.** That is the feature
+  working. Do not suspend, reconcile or apply anything in response to it.
+- **`FluxRolloutStuck` firing: fix the upstream fault, not this symptom.** This alert names the
+  tier that is behind; it never names the cause. Walk up to the first non-Ready tier and use
+  `flux-reconcile`.
+- **Never `kubectl apply`, `edit` or `patch` the change through by hand.** Flux reconciles `main`;
+  a hand-applied object is drift that the next reconcile reverts or, worse, adopts — and it makes
+  the applied-revision signal these alerts read a lie. `flux reconcile` (an operator action, never
+  an agent's) is the only nudge that is safe, and it only *hurries* the same pull.
+- **Escalate to a revert if a stuck rollout is degrading service.** Reverting the offending commit
+  on `main` through the normal PR flow is the rollback path; see runbook `update-rollback`.
+- **If both alerts are silent during a deploy you know happened,** the notification itself is broken,
+  not the deploy. That is cause 5 above, and it is worth fixing immediately — silence from these
+  rules is indistinguishable from "no deploys happened", which is the exact defect they were
+  written to close.

runbooks/kustomization.yaml

@@ -65,6 +65,7 @@ configMapGenerator:
       - crafty-admin-credential=crafty-admin-credential.md
       - denied-flows=denied-flows.md
       - flux-reconcile=flux-reconcile.md
+      - flux-rollout=flux-rollout.md
       - flux-suspended=flux-suspended.md
       - image-automation=image-automation.md
       - image-policy-stalled=image-policy-stalled.md